NHL daily betting guide: Opening moneyline projections for April 29
With the 16-team postseason field set and everyone looking at the same numbers, statistics, and metrics for an angle to attack the playoffs, it's hard to find an edge. Very little difference will be found with oddsmakers and bettors agreeing on the valuations of each team, making a good bet impossible. So, how do we find the edge? By combining logic with our favorite metrics.
For more than half of the NHL season, we couldn't accurately evaluate a team's quality as players shuttled in and out of the lineup due to COVID policies and virulent testing. Then came the All-Star break. The league's decision to loosen protocols and pull back on testing allowed teams to match up at full strength from Feb. 7 onward.
As a result, teams became easier to evaluate. So, ahead of the end of the regular season Friday, let's look at the 2022 postseason teams and see how they stack up using just the last three months of data.
Here, we'll use a combination of offensive high-danger chance creation and conversion at even strength to rate each team, along with how well clubs shut down their opponents.
Post-ASB power ratings| TEAM | RATING | ML RECORD |
|---|---|---|
| Bruins | 1.200 | 24-13 |
| Panthers | 1.151 | 25-8 |
| Hurricanes | 1.139 | 22-17 |
| Flames | 1.107 | 27-11 |
| Oilers | 1.104 | 24-14 |
| Wild | 1.087 | 23-16 |
| Maple Leafs | 1.082 | 24-15 |
| Lightning | 1.078 | 20-14 |
| Stars | 1.066 | 22-16 |
| Blues | 1.063 | 23-14 |
| Penguins | 1.060 | 18-17 |
| Kings | 1.039 | 20-14 |
| Rangers | 1.024 | 21-13 |
| Predators | 1.002 | 16-18 |
| Avalanche | 0.994 | 24-12 |
| Capitals | 0.945 | 19-14 |
*as of games played April 27
The biggest thing to jump out from this list is toward the bottom. The Avalanche have managed a 66% win percentage on the moneyline despite giving up an average of 12.47 even-strength high-danger chances (HDC) per game. That's well above the league average of 11.33.
Colorado's opponents are converting a league-average 1.46 even-strength HDCs per game, but the Avs' offense is recording just 1.36 per contest. The difference has been Colorado's special teams.
The Avalanche have accounted for nine more goals on the power play than they've given up on the penalty kill in the 36 games since Feb. 7. However, can they rely on that to beat a good team four out of seven games?
The recipeBefore the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.
This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 90% of our total rating. Basing 10% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.
How to use the guideWhat follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet on each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold and may decide on a higher cutoff for bigger underdogs, like 6%-7%. On games that I've projected could be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make a wager worthwhile.
Friday, April 29| GAME | WIN PROB.(%) | TRUE ML | PRICE TO BET |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ@PIT | 26.2/73.8 | +282/-282 | CBJ +351/PIT -268 |
| CHI@BUF | 53.2/46.8 | -114/+114 | CHI -109/BUF +134 |
| DET@NJD | 37.2/62.8 | +169/-169 | DET +202/NJD -162 |
| BOS@TOR | 46.8/53.2 | +114/-114 | BOS +134/TOR -109 |
| OTT@PHI | 41.9/58.1 | +139/-139 | OTT +164/PHI -133 |
| WSH@NYR | 42.6/57.4 | +135/-135 | WSH +159/NYR -129 |
| FLA@MTL | 79.1/20.9 | -377/+377 | FLA -356/MTL +490 |
| TBL@NYI | 54.5/45.5 | -120/+120 | TBL -115/NYI +141 |
| VGK@STL | 48.3/51.7 | +107/-107 | VGK +118/STL +103 |
| COL@MIN | 43.4/56.6 | +130/-130 | COL +154/MIN -125 |
| CGY@WPG | 53.5/46.5 | -115/+115 | CGY -110/WPG +135 |
| ANA@DAL | 33.3/66.7 | +200/-200 | ANA +241/DAL -191 |
| VAN@EDM | 32.7/67.3 | +206/-206 | VAN +249/EDM -197 |
| SJS@SEA | 45.7/54.3 | +119/-119 | SJS +140/SEA -114 |
| NSH@ARI | 58.1/41.9 | -139/+139 | NSH -133/ARI +164 |
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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