Rangers-Penguins series preview: Betting by the numbers

Don't stop me if you've heard this one before over the years: The Rangers ride their All-World goaltender into the Stanley Cup Playoffs and hope he can carry them to glory not seen since 1994. Sure, it almost worked once during the Henrik Lundqvist era, but there was a lot of disappointment the rest of the time.

Speaking of sorrow, the Penguins find the words "New York" on their postseason dance card for the third time in four years. They've got to be relieved it's the Rangers and not the Islanders, given how well it went the last two times.

Since winning the Stanley Cup in 2017, the Penguins have entered the playoffs with little more than name value. They've often had some combination of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang injured and goaltending that was sketchy at best.

While Tristan Jarry proved a liability against the Islanders last year, he came into that postseason as slightly below average (-2.34 goals saved above expectation at even strength). This year, he's slightly above average with a 1.65 GSAx, and the big names come in as healthy as they've been in years.

The problem for the Pens' stars and an improved supporting cast is that the Rangers' No. 1 goalie just happens to be a star for the entire league. Igor Shesterkin saved 21.92 more goals than would be expected of a mere mortal and is in the conversation for the Hart Trophy - it's exactly the kind of thing we would have said about Lundqvist years ago.

Series odds

TEAM	GAME 1	SERIES	SERIES HANDICAP
Rangers	-125	-110	NYR -1.5 (+180)
Penguins	+105	-110	PIT -1.5 (+170)

Projected prices

Hopefully, you used our NHL betting guide to evaluate your bets during the regular season and what value truly means in hockey. For the playoffs, we're using even-strength-centric metrics like expected goals, high-danger chance rates, and high-danger conversion rates - both for and against - to try to predict who will play better in the postseason.

Due to some tainted results from before the All-Star break when COVID-19 ravaged lineups, we're weighing the second half more than we normally would. Lastly, to factor in home ice, we'll make use of a formula that includes each team's moneyline win percentage with the league average win probability differential.

True moneylines

The true moneyline takes the implied win probability for each team and converts it to an inverted price for each side before the sportsbook takes its vig on a bet.

The following is the expected price for each side when the games are played in New York (Games 1, 2, 5, and 7), and in Pittsburgh (Games 3, 4, and 6).

	RANGERS	PENGUINS
True ML in New York	-103	+103
True ML in Pittsburgh	+137	-137
Series Price	+130	-130

Price to bet

In the regular season, we'd need at least a 4% edge on an underdog and a 1% edge for the favorite. Using that same threshold, here are the prices to bet for each scenario.

	GAME 1/2/5/7	GAME 3/4/6	SERIES
Rangers	+108	+162	+153
Penguins	+114	-132	-125

If you're looking to back the Penguins in Game 1, you're nearing a valuable bet. At the common price of +105, any slight movement or a rogue sportsbook might give you the +108 that we're hoping for. Given the 49.3% win probability that I have for a Pens win on Tuesday night, anything with a plus sign in front of it is excusable.

Derivative market

Series result	Probability / Converted Odds
Rangers 4-0	4.6% / +2094
Rangers 4-1	10.8% / +822
Rangers 4-2	12.4% / +706
Rangers 4-3	15.7% / +539
Penguins 4-0	8.1% / +1127
Penguins 4-1	14.1% / +609
Penguins 4-2	19% / +425
Penguins 4.3	15.2% / +556

Neither team had notably more success at home than it did on the road, and even though the Rangers had a 25-16 moneyline record away from Madison Square Garden, their 43.04% expected goal share was the worst in the league away from home. The Penguins are just as likely to close this series on Broadway as they are at home.

Best bet

In the short-term variance of an NHL playoff series, all it takes is merely average play between the pipes for a team's advantage in net to go by the wayside. In that small sample size, if I can rely on steady goaltending from the team with the better collection of skaters, that's where I'll put my money.

An excellent goaltender is less likely to steal an entire series than he is to be the hero on any given single night. Therefore, I'm looking to take Pittsburgh in a long, drawn-out series.

Pick: Penguins to win series (-110 or better)

Penguins series handicap -1.5 (+170 or better)

Game 1: Penguins moneyline (+105 or better)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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