NHL Monday best bets: Bruins to survive storm in Carolina

We had a strong finish to the regular season, stringing together three consecutive 2-1 nights with our best bets to close the year out.

We'll look to keep the ball rolling as we begin the marathon that is the Stanley Cup playoffs.

This is going to be a heavily contested back-and-forth series. I like the Boston Bruins to prevail when it's all said and done, and I think they start this game off on the right foot.

There are a couple big factors at play here. First and foremost: Frederik Andersen's absence. The netminder will at least miss the start of this series, and that is very impactful for the Carolina Hurricanes.

Antti Raanta held down the fort pretty well this season, but his numbers don't hold a candle to Andersen's. The latter finished with a slightly higher save percentage and stopped more than a half a goal above expectation per start. By comparison, Raanta saved 0.14 GSAE per start. Not even close.

The Bruins are not a dynamic offensive team, per se, but their top six is miserable to deal with when healthy - and they're healthy.

I also love the form the Bruins are in. Boston won 17 of its final 25 games - only three sides won more - and controlled a league-leading 60.5% of the expected goals at five-on-five.

The Bruins absolutely suffocated opposing offenses in that time, allowing only 1.95 expected goals per 60 and just 8.74 high-danger chances. Both totals ranked them first in the East and second in the NHL.

I think the Bruins can slow Carolina's offense and keep a lot of the shots to the outside, and Andersen's absence should help give Boston more opportunities at the other end.

It feels like the wrong team is favored here.

Bet: Bruins (-105)

I think the St. Louis Blues are in for a bit of a wake-up call. As good as they have been, especially offensively, the Minnesota Wild appear to be a different animal.

The Wild finished the campaign in arguably the NHL's best form, posting a 19-3-3 record over the last 25 games while ranking fifth in expected goal share and first in actual goal share.

With Kirill Kaprizov, Kevin Fiala, and Joel Eriksson Ek all headlining their own lines, Minnesota has three units with very dangerous scoring threats, giving teams a lot of trouble in the defensive zone.

Minnesota could also make a case for being the NHL's best defensive side. Remember when I mentioned the Bruins were second in several key metrics down the stretch? Well, the Wild were holding down the top spot, giving opponents next to nothing at five-on-five.

It's definitely worth debating whether Cam Talbot should get the nod over Marc-Andre Fleury, but Talbot's play over the last month or two was drastically better than what we saw all season.

With the way the Wild have been limiting chances, Talbot should be able to give the team what it needs to claim a victory on home soil.

Bet: Wild (-145)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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