Stanley Cup Playoffs betting: How to find value mid-series

A week ago, we took a look at the four matchups that began on Night 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs and used the results of those games to find value on a team in-series.

The four other series have each seen three games played. As we start the second week of hockey's best time of year, let's use a larger sample size to investigate if there's anything worth playing when push comes to shove in winning time - except Avalanche-Predators, which is essentially over.

Igor Shesterkin being pulled from Game 3 in Pittsburgh wasn't an indictment of the netminder. Up to that point, the league's best goaltender this season was every bit worth the hype. However, it was an indication of the nature of small sample sizes and what's required of any goaltender to carry a team on his shoulders throughout the playoffs. It was also evidence that, for a short period of time, a journeyman NHL goalie can hold up with a good team in front of him.

The numbers themselves are inflated thanks to the three overtimes in Game 1, but that gave us even more of a sample size of two teams playing at even strength.

Having faced 26 more high-danger scoring chances at even strength, it's inevitable that Shesterkin would break. Even with his rough start in Game 3 factored in, stopping almost 90% of high-danger chances is much better than the league average of 87%.

The problem is that the Penguins' replacement-level goaltenders have been every bit as good against the Rangers' best chances. Casey DeSmith and Louis Domingue have stopped 93.75% of the even-strength high-danger chances while Tristan Jarry's been out with a lingering injury.

Along with their six high-danger conversions, the Penguins have three power-play goals and two markers on non-high-danger conversions - i.e. weak goals on Shesterkin. Eight of the Rangers' 12 tallies have come at even strength, but six of them have come from non-high-danger chances. While the Pens' goalies are making big saves, they're giving some goals back. Shesterkin hasn't been doing that.

Best bet

If you're looking to back the Penguins on the idea that the Rangers can't keep scoring soft, even-strength goals, a bet on Pittsburgh at -105 at home in Game 4 is probably the way to go versus paying the -160 series price. If that bet loses, coming back on the Pens at plus money to win the series at 2-2 will be the bet to make.

I didn't see this coming. There was nothing from either the regular season or the recent playoff performances from the Capitals' core to indicate Washington would be competitive with the Panthers.

Game 3 flattered the Capitals, as they converted at an unusually high rate on both the power play (2/6) and even-strength high-danger chances (2/9). However, in hockey betting, playing teams evenly while getting priced as a significant underdog is its own win.

Best bet

The Caps (+120) are still underdogs despite a series lead, which tells you oddsmakers are still reticent to buy into Washington. Instead, since the predictive metrics indicate a closer series, I'll shift gears to bet this matchup to go seven games and get plus money on over 6.5 games (+105).

After a very quiet pair of contests in Calgary, things went wild in Dallas with both teams doubling their even-strength high-danger chance outputs with 16 apiece.

Every game has been played tightly in both predictive categories, but the expectation is that the Flames are the cream that will rise to the top over the course of seven games. We're already sitting on a series bet on the Stars (+1.5 games), but there's no denying the plausibility of the Flames taking two of the next three.

Best bet

Calgary is -120 to win the series, and we can expect the Flames to be north of -200 in a seventh game at home. Grabbing that right now could set up a situation where you've already cashed the Stars (+1.5 games) and have a great price on the Flames in the last game of the series.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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