Ford’s crib notes, Horwath’s strategy, Del Duca’s opportunity: The inside story of how Ontario party leaders are preparing for the campaign’s last debate
It all comes down to this.
The four party leaders competing to be premier in the June 2 election will share the same stage for the final time Monday night in Toronto.
For the Progressive Conservatives' Doug Ford, the NDP's Andrea Horwath, the Liberals' Steven Del Duca and the Greens' Mike Schreiner, the 6:30 p.m. televised leaders debate is a focal point of the 29-day campaign.
With the governing Tories leading in every public opinion poll, the 90-minute encounter is a critical opportunity for the opposition parties to close the gap.
If they don't have a good debate, it could be game over," one Conservative official said of the rival candidates.
But the insider - who, like other strategists interviewed for this story, spoke confidentially in order to discuss internal deliberations - conceded Ontarians have not yet tuned in to the campaign.
Some people don't even realize there's an election on."
That should change after the TVO Broadcast Centre debate.
Moderated by the Star's Althia Raj and Steve Paikin, host of The Agenda," it will be aired on CBC, CHCH, Citytv, CPAC, CTV, Global and TVO; it will also be streamed online, and broadcast on CBC Radio and Newstalk 1010, among other stations.
Horwath, a veteran of the 2011, 2014 and 2018 debates, said the leaders have to remember what actually matters to voters.
Sometimes we get stuck in this performance of a debate or the attention that swirls around the debate," she said.
I mostly spend time thinking about the kinds of things that people tell me they're concerned about - and how to best articulate that."
Behind the scenes, many hours of preparations go into anticipating every possible scenario and line of attack from a rival.
Gotcha zingers and key campaign messages are being memorized with all four leaders instructed by their advisers to play to the cameras - and the millions of Ontarians watching from home - not to their opponents or the moderators.
The candidates each spent the weekend doing their final run-throughs with policy refresher sessions and mock debates.
For Ford's preparation, communications expert Deb Hutton portrays Horwath with lobbyist and key strategist Michael Diamond playing Del Duca, and senior staffer Andrew Sidnell as Schreiner.
Del Duca has also enlisted some boldfaced names for his debate prep. Former Liberal finance minister Dwight Duncan plays Ford, with former health minister Deb Matthews portraying Horwath and lobbyist and top strategist Dan Moulton serving as Schreiner.
The names of all of those working as New Democrats' faux Fords, Del Ducas and Schreiners are closely held due to their day jobs.
But an NDP source said Horwath's press secretary, Sam Pane, has pinch-hit as Ford on occasion.
When our regular Doug dupe wasn't able to make it, Sam ... stepped in and knocked it out of the park. After watching four years of Ford's press events, he was really able to channel the guy," said the New Democrat.
And when our faux Schreiner was away one day, none other than campaign director Michael Balagus stepped up to the podium," the source added.
Schreiner, for his part, has been working with a combination of staffers and campaign volunteers.
The reason for simulated debates - which can get quite heated when the pretend candidates touch a nerve with a pointed or personal attack - is to get candidates accustomed to what to expect in front of the cameras.
Like football coaches watching game film, advisers have spent the past week poring over video from last Tuesday's northern issues debate to study what worked and didn't work on the North Bay stage.
Del Duca was a lot less aggressive and a lot calmer than we expected, so we have to adjust for that. Andrea, though, was pretty predictable," said a second Tory insider.
Because the Liberal is probably the least-known of the leaders - the former cabinet minister took the party helm a week before the pandemic struck Ontario in March 2020 - he may have the most to gain Monday.
His advisers are mindful of that and pounced on the revelations in the Star about the political intrigue during the negotiations with the broadcast consortium producing the debate.
Ford's unilateral demand that he be allowed to bring his briefing binder cheat sheet" to the podium, which was opposed by his rivals, was an opening for the Liberals
When a premier of this province needs to read a script repeatedly that others have written for him ... (that) isn't something that speaks to me in a genuine way," said Del Duca.
Schreiner dryly noted he doesn't plan on bringing my cheat sheet" to the debate, either.
I feel like I perform better when I speak from the heart and I think authenticity really matters in politics," the Green leader said.
Nor will Horwath be peeking at crib notes.
Del Duca charged that Ford is lost without his script, claiming that's why the Tory chief refused to take post-debate media questions in North Bay.
He was afraid to level with the people of Ontario," the Grit leader said.
The Conservatives defended their candidate, who reads from a teleprompter at all of his carefully crafted campaign events and views the briefing binder as something of a security blanket.
They point out Ford presides over a complex government with a $198.6-billion budget and should be allowed to have notes on the dais if he wants them.
But the Tories, noting Ford held hundreds of daily press conferences during the pandemic and is a much better communicator than he was when he won the 2018 election, caution against underestimating their leader.
Indeed, Dax D'Orazio, a post-doctoral fellow in political science at Queen's University, said the PC leader was effective at the North Bay debate.
It appears as though Ford has a healthy lead and therefore kept his messaging very simple at (that) debate," said D'Orazio.
He didn't get mired in wonky policy details and stayed on message about economic prosperity and getting it done.' A good example was in his response to the affordable housing question, in which he offered skimpy details and attempted to frame it as a simple supply and demand' issue."
Robert Benzie is the Star's Queen's Park bureau chief and a reporter covering Ontario politics. Follow him on Twitter: @robertbenzie
Rob Ferguson is a Toronto-based reporter covering Ontario politics for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @robferguson1
Kristin Rushowy is a Toronto-based reporter covering Ontario politics for the Star. Follow her on Twitter: @krushowy