NHL Thursday player props: 3 shooters worth backing at home

Shot props were good to us Wednesday night as Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar both came through with room to spare.

We'll hope for more of the same Thursday as we comb through the best values on the slate.

Sebastian Aho over 2.5 shots (-139)

Aho has been a consistent shooter on home ice for a while now. He's come through in 20 of the Hurricanes' last 30 games in Carolina, good for an impressive 66.7% success rate.

What's most encouraging is that Aho is still trending upward. Of Carolina's six home playoff games thus far, he's generated three shots or more in five of them. He attempted enough shots to get there in the lone defeat; they just didn't hit the target.

Considering the competition - four games against the Bruins and two against the Rangers - such success is promising.

Thursday's Game 5 is crucial for both teams. If the Hurricanes win, they have two chances to close out the series, with Game 7 at PNC Arena - where they're undefeated this postseason.

If the Rangers win, they return home for Game 6 with an opportunity to advance to the Eastern Conference Final. The Hurricanes are winless in five road playoff games thus far, so that would be less than ideal for them.

Given the importance of this contest, expect Carolina to lean even more heavily on its No. 1 center.

Johnny Gaudreau over 3.5 shots (-125)

We've backed Gaudreau in every game of this series, and he has yet to let us down. Despite the Flames' struggles, the dynamic winger has feasted on the Oilers - at least on the shot clock - piling up 19 shots through four games while going over his total (3.5) in each meeting. Gaudreau has 27 shot attempts in this series, good for an average of just under seven per game. With that kind of volume, it's no coincidence he's hitting on a nightly basis.

One thing to note about Gaudreau in this spot: It's an elimination game. He has played more than 18 minutes only once in this series, yet he's still consistently coming through on the shot clock. Gaudreau played more than 20 minutes four times in Calgary's opening-round series against the Stars. With the season on the line, expect that to be the case in this one - and for Gaudreau to make the most of it.

Matthew Tkachuk over 2.5 shots (-143)

Tkachuk leads all players in this series with 29 shot attempts through four games (7.25 per game). Most of those attempts have come from areas close to the net, which is why he also ranks first in expected goals.

Shot attempts are what you want most when chasing shots on goal; you can't hit the net if you don't shoot. But it's also smart to target players who can get in tight. After all, shots from high-danger areas are more likely to hit the target. Tkachuk checks the boxes there.

As mentioned above, expect Flames head coach Darryl Sutter to lean on his top dogs at home in an elimination game. And, even in victory, the Oilers haven't done a great job limiting shots, conceding them at a higher rate than any other team in the second round.

Calgary shot from anywhere and everywhere the last time elimination was on the line, generating shots on target at an absurd rate. Win or lose, we'll likely see the same Thursday night.

Expect Tkachuk to be in the middle of it all.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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