NHL Thursday best bets: The end of the late late show?

According to the betting market, there's roughly a 42% chance that Thursday is the last doubleheader night of the NHL season. That's implied probability of an Oilers win and an abrupt end to the Battle of Alberta. We'll enjoy the late nights while we have them, but they're even more fun with a few winning bets along the way.

The Hurricanes moneyline could be had for as low as -145 in the hours after the Game 5 lines were opened. It was a tiny discount compared to their moneyline price for the previous two contests in Raleigh, likely due to back-to-back Rangers wins. The market quickly jumped on that "2%-off sale," likely remembering that the Canes are 6-0 at home this postseason.

While their full-strength expected goal share (46.1%) suggests the Hurricanes have been more than a little lucky to win every home game, their expected goal share in this series overall (54%) suggests they should be driving the play with things are equal.

Carolina missed some golden opportunities to beat Igor Shesterkin in each game at Madison Square Garden and is still waiting for its first power-play goal in a series where goals have been hard to come by. Look for the Canes to get on the board early and defend their way to victory, making the Rangers' team total under 2.5 (-130) appetizing as well.

Bet: Hurricanes moneyline (-160)

The real shame of having no more late nights in these playoffs would be this wild series coming to an end earlier than many would have thought. I don't think that's going to be the case, though, as Calgary is rightfully favored at home with 40 high-danger chances to Edmonton's 30 at five-on-five.

However, at -155, you're paying a price to fade the Oilers, whose five-on-five high-danger chances are largely top quality thanks to the playmaking of Connor McDavid and the attention he attracts. Betting against that isn't any fun or, more importantly, particularly valuable.

Instead, let's bet on something even less fun - but perhaps more valuable - the under.

After a 15-goal Game 1, it's hard to stomach the idea of hoping against goals in any contest. However, we'll hope that, unlike in Game 4, Jacob Markstrom doesn't pass the puck directly to an Oilers player in front of an open net and that Mike Smith stops any pucks shot from 130 feet away.

After Game 1's series-high 4.74 expected goals (xG) at full strength, the two teams have averaged less than 4.0 xG in the last three games while five-on-five.

For all the danger it's provided, the Oilers' power play is clicking at just 15%, and there's plenty of room for Markstrom's overall play to improve. The Flames' top line hasn't shown its teeth yet either.

The longer any series goes, the tighter it's going to be played. But the reputation of this series is that of a high-flying goal bonanza, which is why we're getting plus-money on under 6.5 goals. There is a risk of a 3-3 tie going to overtime and making this bet a loser, so if you can bet the under 7.0 at -150 or better, that's a safer play.

Bet: Under 6.5 (+110)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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