London North Centre is a battleground like few others in Thursday’s election

LONDON, Ont.-It's a tight, three-way fight that spotlights key provincewide issues and comes steeped in political drama, from bragging rights to a job windfall that could point the way to reviving some of Ontario's struggling downtowns.

Home to the sprawling campus of Western University, two major hospitals, the city core and suburban neighbourhoods, the riding of London North Centre is a battleground like few others in Thursday's election - making it a proving ground for the claims and ambitions of all three major parties.

With Andrea Horwath's NDP and the Liberals under Steven Del Duca duking it out for the mantle of best alternative to Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives and their get it done" promises of post-pandemic prosperity, the race features a cast of characters competing for a seat at Queen's Park.

First-time PC hopeful Jerry Pribil, the owner of two well-known restaurants, is hoping Ford's pledge to move the Workplace Safety and Insurance Board from Toronto to London puts him over the top against first-term New Democrat MPP Terence Kernaghan and former Liberal leadership candidate Kate Graham, looking to avenge a crushing defeat after her party's vote collapsed in the 2018 Ford sweep.

The close contest puts Green candidate Carol Dyck in an awkward position on the doorsteps of voters eager to block the Conservatives, despite Ford's WSIB promise dangled with few details on the eve of the campaign.

I do have people ask me, who should I vote for, the Liberals or the NDP?" she says. And I am like, I literally cannot tell you because going door to door it is impossible in this riding to know which way it's going to go," adds Dyck, who has run three times previously for the Greens in provincial and federal elections.

So to try to vote strategically, you might as well flip a coin," adds Dyck, who is completing her PhD at Western in deep seabed mining over concerns the rush for minerals needed for electric vehicle batteries could ravage ocean floors.

The WSIB promise has the potential to energize downtown London, with its commercial vacancy rate approaching 30 per cent and a once-prosperous Dundas Street shopping strip that is a shadow of its former self since the early 1990s recession. Many stores remain vacant with people sleeping in front.

If the move is the same size as what the board has on Front Street in Toronto in terms of premises and staff it's a significant boost for the city, especially if it goes downtown," says George Kerhoulas, a London native and an office leasing specialist with commercial realtor Cushman & Wakefield.

If it's a big portion of that, it's still great," added Kerhoulas, who noted he has no inside information" on the government's plans but pointed to a potential site on a downtown block including empty towers that once housed Royal Bank offices and Simpsons department store.

The move - part of a larger Conservative strategy to spread provincial agencies throughout the province and boost local economies - could create as many as 3,000 jobs in the city, according to the Conservatives.

While acknowledging more jobs would be welcome, rival parties are wary, because the WSIB has said it won't force any employees to move and has three years remaining on its lease in Toronto.

So what exactly does this mean for London?" asks Graham, an assistant professor of political science at Western, noting the announcement came a week before the official campaign began.

There are no timelines, no details, no location, no estimates on the number of positions," says Kernaghan, a former elementary school teacher.

It's really hard to evaluate this. It's effectively bribing people for their vote."

The pressure is on Kernaghan to keep the riding NDP because the party holds neighbouring London West and London-Fanshawe, which local observers say are unlikely to change. Elgin-London-Middlesex, which includes rural areas and the nearby city of St. Thomas, is expected to stay Conservative.

London North Centre was a Liberal stronghold until former health minister Deb Matthews retired from electoral politics in 2018, passing the mantle to Graham, who finished a distant third in that year's election with 15 per cent of the vote and later ran for Liberal leader, also placing third.

The stakes are high for Graham, who served as co-chair of the team that developed the Liberal platform, with elements like capping class sizes at 20 and buck-a-ride" public transit across the province. She is the party's best shot at regaining a London foothold.

Running for a party that had been in power for 15 years meant that a lot of people were upset, there was a lot of anger" at former premier Kathleen Wynne, Graham says at her campaign office. It's a short drive from the mosque where a memorial service was held a year ago for four members of a London Muslim family run down by a motorist in a pickup truck.

This time if they're angry, they're mad at Ford."

Graham takes aim at his government for speaking at the memorial service but failing to pass the NDP's proposed Our London Family Act to fight Islamophobia in the wake of the tragedy that prompted terrorism and murder charges against the suspect.

That's obviously deeply personal for this city."

Pribil, the PC candidate, was not available for an interview because he was busy campaigning," party officials said. He has also not faced voters at as many all-candidates debates as his opponents.

They're ducking and covering and hiding because they can't answer the tough questions," said Kernaghan in a reference to other Ford candidates across the province choosing to skip such meetings and knock on doors instead.

In a statement provided on behalf of Pribil by the party campaign office Toronto, Pribil touted the WSIB promise.

For too long, the Workplace Safety and Insurance Act has required the WSIB head office to be located in Toronto, costing over $30 million annually. By planning to relocate their Toronto-based head office to London, we are benefiting the people of London for generations to come by bringing good-paying jobs to our community, rebuilding our local economy and saving millions of taxpayer dollars."

Dyck says she is increasingly hearing from voters who are tired of the major parties and getting more interest on doorsteps after a strong performance by Green Leader Mike Schreiner in the May 16 televised leaders debate - the first time he has appeared in one.

I say, why not use me as your protest vote?' "

Rob Ferguson is a Toronto-based reporter covering Ontario politics for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @robferguson1