Could Doug Ford’s cottage riding go Green? Pollsters say ‘the stars are aligning’
PARRY SOUND, Ont. - Something Green is growing in the backyard of Doug Ford's Muskoka cottage.
Four years ago, the Ontario Green Party in Guelph earned itself a historic first-ever seat in the provincial legislature. Now, it's looking to double its number on election night June 2 with a potential second seat in Parry Sound-Muskoka - a Progressive Conservative stronghold that houses party leader Ford's own cottage.
According to Mainstreet Research, Green Party candidate Matt Richter is surging in the polls for the riding. If he wins, it would mean the upset of a seat which has remained blue since the riding's creation in 1999.
The chance of this riding going Green is so causative with change, and an overwhelming message to the people here that their concerns and frustrations are being met with solutions," Richter said in an interview with the Star this week.
The rush of support for Richter is great news for the Greens," said Earl Washburn, senior analyst at EKOS Research. With no Liberal candidate in the riding, the centre-left vote is coalescing behind the Greens," he said.
Two weeks ago, the Liberals canned candidate Barry Stanley after the Star reported he had self-published a book which claimed, without evidence, that homosexuality is caused by infants rebreathing" their own air after birth.
Alongside party leader Mike Schreiner, Richter campaigned in Parry Sound-Muskoka Saturday to drum up more support for his battle to get to Queen's Park. The campaign tour included stops in Bracebridge, Ont., the hometown of PC challenger and Mayor Graydon Smith.
Part of Richter's rise stems from the people power" offered by the Green volunteer team, Schreiner said at a stop in Parry Sound. Volunteers for the campaign waved signs and cheered the pair on, often punctuated by supportive honking and thumbs up from passing drivers.
One volunteer, Pam Moorhouse, told the Star Richter's momentum is palpable. The energy here is amazing. People really want change," she said.
Schreiner and Richter were met with positive support while they canvassed in the area, with one resident saying she had already cast her ballot for the Greens at an advance poll.
Schreiner is looking forward to the possibility he'll have a seatmate in the legislature who can vote alongside him. More important, he said, is the message it sends to other parties.
We need to do politics differently and we need to tone down the partisanship," Schreiner said, adding he's willing to work across party lines to collaborate on policies.
As of May 24, polling by Mainstreet Research showed the Greens leading with 39 per cent of the vote, over the PCs at 30 per cent. (This is in contrast to polling by The Signal, the Star's poll aggregator, which shows the PCs as the likely" winner of the riding.)
Eric Grenier, polls analyst at thewrit.ca, said the stars are aligning" for the Greens to pick up another seat. The Greens emerged from the leaders' debate with a bump in the polls, he said, and the lack of a Liberal candidate means that much of that vote share will head toward Richter.
Ford, who campaigned with Smith on May 22, insisted he is not worried about" losing the traditional Tory stronghold to the Greens. But the leader conceded the lack of a Liberal candidate there was making it tougher for the Tories.
As we see the Liberals' numbers going down, yes, the people that are benefiting from it are the Greens. They're picking up a couple of points," the Tory leader said Tuesday in Brampton. But I have all the confidence in the world. The people of Parry Sound-Muskoka will elect Mayor Graydon Smith."
While the PCs have long held the region, they have thrown a new candidate into the ring in Smith, who is replacing long-time MPP Norm Miller. Late last year, Miller announced he would be retiring from politics after more than two decades at Queen's Park.
Smith is confident his track record as mayor will give him the edge to win. With years of political service under his belt, he said, he's worked on a lot of issues on behalf of people" over his life.
I'm excited for that opportunity to take the skills that I've used and honed over many, many years and put them to work," Smith said.
Meanwhile, Richter is no newcomer to politics and has been building momentum in Parry Sound-Muskoka since 2007, when he was first nominated for the Greens. That year, Richter came in fourth place. He has run in every election since.
Richter said he began his work with the Greens in part because of the party's stance on education and health care, but also because living in the riding has given him a real-time look at how valuable Ontario's natural resources are. Richter previously worked as a teacher, before founding a small business. He has three children with his wife, Kailey.
Richter told the Star a win would signal that Ontarians are buying into the hopeful, more optimistic approach" to politics he feels his party offers.
When we suggest solutions or new ways of doing things, we're doing this based on evidence," Richter said. That's quite refreshing among the voters in our riding."
The party has a chance to win in Parry Sound-Muskoka, he said, because of its ability to capitalize on growing support.
The Greens' fortunes started changing in 2014, when Richter first placed third above New Democratic Party challenger Clyde Mobbley. In the 2018 election, Richter raked in 20 per cent of the vote and closely trailed NDP candidate Erin Horvath, who was making her first political run. Horvath collected 22 per cent of the vote.
For her part, Horvath said she's committed to taking a second shot at the riding.
While all three leaders said affordability is the standout issue facing residents of Parry Sound-Muskoka, Horvath said she felt her party is best positioned to serve the area because they plan to balance affordability when we look at how we are going to move ahead with a carbon neutral economy."
She acknowledged there are similarities between the NDP and Green platforms, but said the NDP has the critical mass of MPPs" which could bring about policy changes, while the Greens will not form government.
In Parry Sound-Muskoka, as is the case in so many other areas of the province, voters are facing major concerns over affordable housing and the growing cost of living, alongside a need for better hospital access. The PC government pledged $14 million to redevelop two Muskoka hospitals in April.
As of the 2016 census, the last year for which data is available, 94,398 people live in the region. The riding's average age is 47, with around 26 per cent of residents aged 65 and older. Income lags the rest of the province: the median household income was $63,813 in 2015, compared to $74,287 Ontario-wide.
With files from Robert Benzie
Jenna Moon is a general assignment reporter for the Star and is based in Toronto. Follow her on Twitter: @_jennamoon