NHL Thursday best bets: Back the Bolts in pivotal Game 5

We have a huge game to look forward to on Thursday after a night without any action on the ice.

Let's take a look at where the value lies with our three best bets.

Lightning (-130) @ Rangers (+110)

This series started with a blowout victory for the New York Rangers, one that wasn't nearly as one-sided as the scoreline suggested.

The Tampa Bay Lightning have really flipped the script since that point. They were the better team in Game 2, controlling nearly 60% of the expected goal share at five-on-five while spending more time on the front foot.

In Game 3 their xG share was 68.53% and they were rightfully rewarded with their first win of the series. They followed that up with another great showing, posting a 62.59% xG share at five-on-five en route to a 4-1 win.

Though it's tied up at two, seemingly everything is pointing toward a Lightning victory. They have controlled at least 59% of the five-on-five xG share in three straight games.

New York hasn't scored once in that game state over the last two games, nor have they mustered up many chances.

The Rangers are also dealing with injury issues to Ryan Strome and Filip Chytil. If one, or both, of those players are unable to play, Barclay Goodrow will be forced into a much larger role - one he doesn't look capable of playing.

Goodrow was more or less played off the ice in Game 4, logging 12:43 of ice time at five-on-five. In that time, the Rangers attempted only three shots, controlled less than 7% of the expected goal share, and were outscored. Not ideal.

Tampa Bay looks like the much superior side. If the Rangers are missing bodies, or fail to convert on multiple power plays, they're going to have a tough time regaining their footing in Game 5.

Bet: Lightning (-130)

Nikita Kucherov over 3.5 shots (+120)

Kucherov is feasting on the Rangers in this series. Through four games he has amassed six points, 18 shots on goal, and 31 shot attempts. He leads the Lightning in each category.

With an average of nearly eight attempts per game, it is no coincidence he has gone over his shot total in three of four contests thus far.

The volume is there on a nightly basis. He's playing over 20 minutes per game; the Rangers, although a good team, do not suppress shots well.

There's not much reason to believe Kucherov can't sustain these kinds of outputs as the series continues to progress, especially with key members of the Rangers banged up or outright unavailable.

Chris Kreider under 2.5 shots (-114)

We have been burned twice in a row by Kreider, but the underlying numbers suggest the process is still strong. He still isn't generating many shot attempts, particularly at five-on-five. They've just seemingly all hit the net of late.

Kreider has only attempted eight shots at five-on-five in this series and 14 overall. That's 3.5 attempts per game. It takes three shots on goal to hit the over, of course, so I'm happy to fade a guy who has absolutely no margin for error based on the volume he is generating.

His track record against the Lightning is also alarming, to say the least. He has only recorded three shots or more in two of seven meetings this season. He is 0-4 in New York.

Kreider attempted more than two shots in just one of those four games. Put another way, he'd be failing even if each shot made its way to Andrei Vasilevskiy.

He's averaged 3.1 attempts against the Bolts this season. Priced at nearly a coin flip, I'll take my chances on Kreider failing to convert each into a shot on target.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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