Stanley Cup Final head-to-head player props: Trust Tampa's shutdown line
You can bet on the Stanley Cup winners at almost any time of the year. Minutes after Lord Stanley's holy grail is awarded later this month, the 2023 odds will be up.
For the player-specific market, Conn Smythe Trophy betting has been available for months, with odds changing as team results have come in.
There's a strong possibility you exhausted betting options long before the series odds and Conn Smythe market matured to their current point. However, there are fresh markets to bet on, including player matchups for who'll score more points in the Stanley Cup Final.
Head-to-head points market| COL PLAYER (Odds) | TB PLAYER (Odds) |
|---|---|
| Cale Makar (-150) | Victor Hedman (+115) |
| Nathan MacKinnon (-120) | Nikita Kucherov (-110) |
| Mikko Rantanen (-120) | Steven Stamkos (-110) |
Across 14 playoff games, the Avalanche averaged 4.64 goals scored and 2.86 allowed, while the Lightning averaged 3.05 scored and 2.41 allowed in 17 games.
If you split the difference, Colorado might be expected to score 3.5 goals per game this series, which admittedly seems high given Tampa Bay's ability to dictate pace. Meanwhile, the Bolts might be expected to score just under three goals per game.
The 3.5-2.96 disparity justifies the Avalanche players' status as favorites in these matchups. Cale Makar's superlative play - he's one point behind Nikita Kucherov for the active lead - is reason enough for him to be a larger favorite over his counterpart on the blue line.
Makar (-150) over Hedman
A bet on Makar (-150) means you believe there's a greater than 60% chance he outscores Victor Hedman. Makar's series point totals are 10, three, and nine. Hedman's best is seven points - against the Maple Leafs in a seven-game series. He added three and four points in the next two rounds.
A simple comparison suggests Makar might have an even more commanding chance of leading. His 1.57 points per game to Hedman's 0.82 indicates a point share of 65.6% in favor of the Avs star. With a fair price closer to -200, Makar's a good bet as the favorite at a discount price.
Kucherov (-110) over MacKinnon
Two things are working against the top players on the Avalanche in these matchups. The first is the focus Nathan MacKinnon and his linemates will get from Anthony Cirelli and the Lightning's top defensive group - not to mention their second level of defense and all-world goaltender.
The second is the Avalanche's strength in depth, which allows them to produce offense elsewhere. MacKinnon won't need to outscore the Lightning's top scorer for the Avs to win the series.
Stamkos (-110) over Rantanen
The Avalanche have struggled in their penalty-killing this postseason, recording a 24.3% kill efficiency. This gives Kucherov and Steven Stamkos an advantage since the Lightning rely on the power play to give them an edge in the low-event games they want to play.
Stamkos found his sea legs against the Rangers, having his best, most impactful series since the start of this Lightning run in 2020. Meanwhile, Mikko Rantanen has taken a back seat to MacKinnon and Makar, and his 1.21 points per game playoff average will likely come down.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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