Global oil and gas prices have been highly volatile –what will happen next? | Kenneth Rogoff

Supply and demand shocks seem likely to keep prices up despite fears of recession in US and Europe

Over the past two and a half years, world oil and gas prices have been subject to demand shocks and supply shocks - and sometimes both simultaneously. The resulting volatility in energy markets is a reflection and a microcosm of a careening global economy.

The price of Brent crude oil declined from a normal" $68 a barrel at the end of 2019 to $14 a barrel in April 2020 as the Covid-19 pandemic spread worldwide. Two years later, in March 2022, the price soared to $133 a barrel after Russia invaded Ukraine. Now it is falling again amid growing fears of a recession in the US. But the price could rise sharply if the Chinese economy bounces back from the stupor induced by its zero-Covid policies.