What May Be Coming To Startups, 2022 Edition

Elad Gil, a high-profile angel investor, writes: The high level view is that things have yet to get truly bad in private tech. 2021-2022 were an anomaly due to COVID policies which both created an incredibly cheap low interest money environment, pumped the stock market, and facilitated adoption of certain types of tech. This environment led to both excess in fundraising but also in hiring. This means that as money transitions back to to "normal" levels teams that were hired too far ahead need to shrink. Many areas (hiring plans, valuations, time venture capital raised lasts, etc) are roughly reseting to 2018/2019 norms, which themselves were all time highs prior to the COVID era. If interest rates and money supply continue to tighten and a recession happens, then things should get worse. The below largely deals with the base case of things roughly stay where they are now. More likely, things will get worse before they get better. Nonetheless, it is still a great time to start a company. So what do the next few quarters look like? 1. Valuations will continue to drop and are not stable yet.2. Top up rounds: Many companies are doing quick top-up rounds to add 6-18 months of runway and ensure the company has 36 months of cash to outlast any economic downturns or recessions. 3. Money leaving the market: Many investors who can invest in either public or private companies are mainly just focusing on public companies. This not only includes hedge funds, but also family offices and in some cases traditional venture funds. They view public markets as superior in terms of multiples and returns. Why invest in a $5B valuation private tech company with $50M in ARR when you can invest at a $5B valuation for a public company adding $50M in ARR every two months? Public companies are also liquid at most moments so you can exit the position more easily, and you can also hedge the position.

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