Candidates set for Hamilton’s ‘change’ election

The die is cast for Hamilton's fall municipal vote with 91 candidates registered for races that promise the greatest council turnover in recent memory.

Not since the election of 2000 - when amalgamation dissolved outlying town councils and cut the number of old-city ward representatives from two to one - have so many sitting politicians bowed out of local politics.

(And even then, incumbents ended up filling all but one urban Hamilton council seat.)

In this fall's contest, seven incumbents are not running again, guaranteeing at least that many new faces around the council horseshoe. Maybe more, if 25 challengers to incumbents in nine wards get their way.

The mayoral race will usher in a new head of council regardless, with three-term veteran Fred Eisenberger deciding not to seek re-election.

Overall, Hamilton is headed for one of the largest guaranteed council overhauls that longtime McMaster political scientist Henry Jacek can recall.

In this case, obviously we're going to see a major new influx of people and that could really change the balance, dramatically affect the attitude of this council," he said.

Friday was the nomination deadline for the Oct. 24 vote, but the city clerk plans to issue a final list of certified candidates on Monday.

Jacek figures this fall's election could install a very activist, innovative council."

The campaign coincides with evolving views on road design and safety, homelessness and urban sprawl.

Transit - and who pays for it - is shaping up to be a recurring debate, but the perennial election elephant of LRT looks like more of a settled issue," suggested Jacek, even if mayoral candidate Bob Bratina remains opposed to the federally and provincially funded project.

The main competition for the former Liberal MP and mayor is ex-Ontario NDP leader and local MPP Andrea Horwath and Keanin Loomis, who was president and CEO of the Hamilton Chamber of Commerce.

Jacek suggested the open race for the chain of office should attract more voters to the municipal vote, which typically results in poor turnout at the polls. (In 2018, 38 per cent of eligible voters cast ballots. In 2014, the turnout was 34 per cent.)

How people vote in the mayoral contest will also tell the tale of whether the larger Hamilton public has an appetite for change, he said.

For instance, if Bratina wins or polls well, maybe a lot of people are not quite as ready for change as you think."

Sometimes change" elections are driven by anger, and there are voters furious about the Sewergate scandal, for instance, or still upset about LRT, he notes.

But those angry voters" are in the minority, Jacek argued, speculating, perhaps optimistically, that there is a real desire for positive change."

Local city hall watcher Chris Erl noted a slow trickle of bad news" throughout this term with the 24-billion-litre sewage leak into Chedoke Creek at the outset.

From anti-immigration rallies outside city hall to integrity commissioner probes of councillors, voters might be numb to all of that," said Erl, a political scientist with Toronto Metropolitan University.

Moreover, the campaigns thus far appear to be focused on broader, structural shifts rather than on rallying the electorate around a single wedge issue, he observed.

Think traffic safety, housing affordability, taxation, infrastructure and climate action.

So this has the potential to be less of an outrage election and more of a change election," Erl said.

But he agrees high-profile mayoral contenders could boost interest in the election overall.

On the theme of change, it's fascinating" to see how Horwath - a politician since kicking off her career at council in 1997 before jumping to Queen's Park - is billed as a change candidate."

Bratina, by contrast, presents himself as a pseudo-incumbent" who can keep the ship sailing straight."

Loomis, meanwhile, as former chamber boss, draws a broad swath" with his business credentials and alignment with urban progressives, but lacks name recognition, Erl noted.

He also said partisan affiliations will play a role for the municipal election hopefuls, but less so than in provincial and federal contests.

I think it's really going to come down to the strength of each campaign and how they're able to get their message across that will convince voters one way or another that their candidate is the candidate for change or continuity."

What's at stake?

The 2018-22 term has provided no shortage of fodder for candidate platforms. Here's just a sample:

Transparency Council, citing legal advice, opted to keep the magnitude of the four-year sewage spill into Chedoke Creek under wraps until The Spectator wrote about it. It also belatedly revealed an inexplicably buried parkway safety report that has triggered an inquiry estimated to cost at least $26 million.

Road safety A rash of pedestrian and cyclist deaths this year has sparked calls from residents to design safer streets and calm traffic - particularly on one-way, inner-city thoroughfares like Main and King streets.

Growth Council froze Hamilton's urban boundary and directed future growth to the city's existing footprint to save farmland, but the provincial government is pressuring municipal leaders to reconsider and build outward.

COVID-19 The pandemic remains a threat to municipal coffers and a source of contention for municipal workers who have refused to get vaccinated.

Housing and homelessness Residents are worried and angry about a lack of affordable housing, spiking home and rental prices, and renovictions." Council is also struggling with how to deal with encampments and housing for vulnerable residents.

Transit Quite apart from the looming $3.4-billion light rail transit construction project, the next council must also debate the thorny issue of who pays for transit costs across the amalgamated city.

Incumbent's advantage

Yes, big scandals can inspire - or provoke - the electorate to send incumbents packing.

But generally, especially in larger cities like Hamilton, sitting politicians pull off victories nine out of 10 times, noted Jack Lucas.

Incumbents benefit from a relative lack of information in municipal elections compared to the easy cues" - such as partisan affiliations - available to voters in provincial and federal contests, said the University of Calgary political scientist.

Most people instantly fill in lots of information about the candidate just by virtue of the party to which they belong."

But that's largely stripped away in municipal elections, leaving voters with less information to guide their choices, Lucas pointed out.

Amid that void, and without anything particularly good or bad" about them, incumbents can win favour.

One thing we know about an incumbent is that they got elected at least once in the past, so it means that they're not completely distasteful to voters," Lucas said.

However, the incumbent's advantage also presents itself as a self-fulfilling prophesy" that results in a scare-off effect" that dissuades newcomers with potential from running for office. But, maybe you wouldn't lose," Lucas added.

Although rare, there are cases of new candidates dispatching seasoned politicos from Hamilton city hall.

Consider Brenda Johnson.

Johnson, who is not running for re-election after three terms as Ward 11 councillor, got her start in politics in 2010 by beating out a well-known incumbent, Dave Mitchell.

We knew (overcoming) name recognition was going to be tough," she said, noting her predecessor had 25 years in public life at that point, including a decade as the post-amalgamation councillor for Ward 11.

We went in with an all-or-nothing mentality ... and we had a really great team behind us. You need a great team."

Johnson had a school principal, a veteran campaign manager and a marketing expert on her team.

She also had a huge number of dedicated relatives and friends, including a number of demolition derby car drivers who splashed the Johnson name on their cars during a competition at the popular Binbrook fair.

Her advice to rookie candidates?

You need to have a good resume in your community," said Johnson, who worked on a number of ward development issues as part of her former job with Environment Hamilton.

Sometimes, as Lucas noted, controversial issues or scandals can help, too.

Johnson's predecessor was censured in 2005 for trying to use his council position to get out of a speeding ticket and in 2008 for trying to influence a council colleague on a land ruling involving his farm, The Spectator previously reported.

Support for the then-proposed aerotropolis" development on agricultural land around Hamilton's airport was also a contentious issue in the 2010 election.

Lesser-knowns can also orchestrate upsets at the mayoral level, Lucas offered, pointing to Naheed Nenshi's come-from-behind victory in Calgary in 2010.

It looked like it was a two-horse race, and he was not one of those two horses, but was able to just capture interest and enthusiasm of voters in a way that was quite extraordinary," Lucas said.

Faces in crowds

Despite the buzz, aspiring municipal leaders didn't exactly storm into city hall to file their papers by Friday's deadline.

In fact, the tally of 91 hopefuls is lower than the previous election. In 2018, voters cast ballots for 104 candidates.

I think there's a little bit of fatigue, not only among the electorate, but the potential pool of candidates," Erl said.

The municipal vote follows June's provincial election - which had an all-time low turnout of 43 per cent - and September 2021's federal contest.

That doesn't mean some ward races don't have several candidates, especially those without incumbents.

Take, for instance, Ward 4, where 11 candidates are vying for the favour of east Hamilton voters in Sam Merulla's longtime territory.

It's a real challenge for voters when faced with a ward race that has all these candidates to figure out who the heck they want to support," Lucas said.

But in open races, partisan ties - although absent on paper" - can help build profiles, he suggested.

Some candidates may have held provincial or federal office, or simply run in past elections under party banners, which voters may recall.

It's not as though voters have a municipal politics switch in their brains that they flip during municipal elections and forget about party affiliations and things of that sort," Lucas said.

Likewise, voters want to know who ward candidates are supporting in the higher-profile mayoral race to help narrow down their choices, he pointed out.

It's not like there's a Team Horwath going out and running for office, but you can see why that information would be valuable for a voter."

Local profile - if a candidate was a school board trustee or led a community organization, for instance - also matters.

The other thing is just perception about competitiveness," said Lucas, noting voters will consider which candidate appears better equipped to do a good job if elected."

Municipal candidates

Mayoral Keanin Loomis, Ejaz Butt, Bob Bratina, Andrea Horwath, Solomon Ikhuiwu, Paul Fromm, Hermiz Ishaya, Michael Pattison, Jim Davis

Ward 1 Ian MacPherson, Maureen Wilson*, John Vail

Ward 2 Cameron Kroetsch, Raquel Rakovac, Jason Farr*, Robin McKee, Shahan Aaron

Ward 3 Nrinder Nann*, Laura Farr, Walter Furlan, Michael Falletta, Stan Kruchka

Ward 4 Alex Johnstone, Angelica Hasbon, Maxwell Francis, Mary Williams, Laura Taylor, Pascale Marchand, Tammy Hwang, Adam Oldfield, Eric Tuck, Cindy Kennedy, Robert Paris

Ward 5 Matt Francis, Bob Hurst, Kevin Geenen, Sebastian Aldea, Lynda Lukasik, Angela Pugliese, Ryan Ladner, Krysta Boyer, Stan Habza, George Rusich, Gordon Noble

Ward 6 Tom Jackson*, Donna Puddu, Stefan Spolnik, Chris Slye, Dan Preston

Ward 7 Esther Pauls*, Scott Duvall

Ward 8 Anthony Frisina, John-Paul Danko*, Sonia Brown, Daniel Veltri, Joshua Czerniga

Ward 9 Brad Clark*, Peter Lanza, Walt Juchniewicz, Muhammad Naeem

Ward 10 Jeff Beattie, Maria Pearson*, Louie Milojevic

Ward 11 Nicholas Lauwers, Mark Tadeson, Terri Moffett, Nick Pellegrino

Ward 12 Craig Cassar, Bob Maton, Megg Markettos, Karl Hanley, Cindy Kaye, Pamela Mitchell, Chuck Alkerton, Robert Baboth, William Robert Hume, Richard Deverson

Ward 13 Arlene VanderBeek*, Alex Wilson

Ward 14 Kojo Damptey, Brian Lewis, Colleen Wicken, Michael Spadafora, Christine Seketa, Don Ross, Christopher Poole

Ward 15 Ted McMeekin, Sumaira Waqar, Zobia Jawed, Chris Pera, Robert Kunysz

*Incumbent

Exiting members of council

Mayor Fred Eisenberger, Sam Merulla (Ward 4), Russ Powers (Ward 5), Terry Whitehead (Ward 14), Brenda Johnson (Ward 11), Lloyd Ferguson (Ward 12), Judi Partridge (Ward 15)

Key dates

Aug. 19 Nomination deadline

Sept. 26 First day for election signs

Oct. 7, 8, 14, 15 Advance polls

Oct. 24 Election day

Nov. 16 Inauguration

Teviah Moro is a reporter at The Spectator. tmoro@thespec.com

Matthew Van Dongen is a transportation and environment reporter at The Spectator. mvandongen@thespec.com