NFL season-long props: Fewest points scored
We looked at the NFL through an optimistic lens when we tried to find value in the team to score the most points - a market that's difficult to guess in retrospect. While it was tricky to remember which was the highest-scoring team in 2021, it's far easier to recall the team at the bottom of the list. The Jacksonville Jaguars were full value for their last-place finish in 2021, scoring just 253 points in an offensive horror show.
The basic logic that we used to determine who will score a lot in the coming season can be applied here in reverse. Like the Jaguars in their (pathetic) prime, we want teams that manage to avoid scoring touchdowns and rarely get near the end zone, and when they do, they kick (and miss) field goals or turn the ball over.
As with most NFL betting markets, there are minimal secrets. Unlike the market for most points, the game situation has little effect on a team scoring at league-low rates. If you're bad, you're trailing and need to score. Unlike good teams that will take their foot off the gas late, the bad teams still try. Since their motivation to score remains constant, pure ineptitude is of the utmost importance, and oddsmakers know what's most likely to be a gruesome offensive outfit.
Fewest points scored odds| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Texans | +550 |
| Falcons | +600 |
| Bears | +600 |
| Seahawks | +750 |
| Panthers | +1000 |
| Jets | +1000 |
| Steelers | +1200 |
| Giants | +1500 |
| Lions | +1600 |
| Jaguars | +2000 |
| Patriots | +2000 |
| Commanders | +2000 |
| Saints | +2500 |
| Dolphins | +4000 |
| Vikings | +4000 |
| Titans | +4000 |
| Colts | +5000 |
| Raiders | +5000 |
| Eagles | +6000 |
| 49ers | +6000 |
| Cardinals | +7500 |
| Ravens | +7500 |
| Bengals | +7500 |
| Browns | +7500 |
| Broncos | +7500 |
| Packers | +7500 |
| Cowboys | +10000 |
| Chiefs | +15000 |
| Chargers | +15000 |
| Rams | +15000 |
| Buccaneers | +15000 |
| Bills | +20000 |
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
We discussed the karmic negativity of sprinkling on a handful of good-team long shots in our preview of the worst record market, but the difference is that those teams could hypothetically score a lot early and still lose before their big-name quarterback suffers an injury. We need teams that are bad from the start. The Giants gave the Jaguars everything they could handle at the offensive bottom of the league in 2021, showing how depressingly competitive the fewest points market can be.
Best betsSeahawks (+750)
We talked about Russell Wilson's outstanding red-zone conversion rate when we broke down the most points market. So it should come as no surprise that Wilson's departure bodes poorly for a Seahawks offense that had the fifth-fewest red-zone trips last season and was in the bottom half of the league even when Wilson was healthy in 2020.
A minimal volume of opportunities and a probably less-than-average conversion rate from a quarterback room that hosts Geno Smith, Drew Lock, and Jacob Eason is a bad recipe for points. Include the punt-first attitude of head chef Pete Carroll and Seattle could be looking at a season where it converts around 50% of just three red-zone trips per game. That modest projection results in 179 points before field goals and non-offensive touchdowns.
Seattle would still need 75 more points to hit the Jags' league low from 2021, but the Seahawks' defense created just two touchdowns last season, and they were 31st in total field goals with 17. That's 65 points added before explosive plays, and don't expect whoever the Seahawks start at quarterback to create many touchdowns of 20-plus yards.
Jaguars (+2000)
The aforementioned Jaguars were pulled down the oddsboard on the presumption they'll have a more organized locker room after the Urban Meyer train wreck. But it's hard to convince me there's only a 5% chance that Jacksonville will be just as bad offensively this year.
The Jags made token adjustments to their offensive line, overpaying Brandon Scherff at guard and re-upping mediocre left tackle Cam Robinson. Receiver additions Christian Kirk and Zay Jones don't move the needle for me. These arrivals, along with a healthy Travis Etienne and better coordination from Doug Pederson and his staff, might bump them up from last season's 2.3 red-zone trips per game and increase their conversion rate beyond 50%, but even 10% increases in each category equate to just 24 touchdowns.
Will Trevor Lawrence and the defense create enough explosive plays to augment that 165-point base contribution? At 20-1, for a minimal investment, I'll dare them to escape from the basement.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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