NFL season-long props: Most points scored
Before we look at the odds for the NFL's highest-scoring team, a quick exercise: Without looking, who led the league in points scored last season?
Hint #1: They weren't one of the favorites last campaign, and they aren't the favorites this year.
Hint #2: They finished in the middle of the league in 2020, for a very good reason.
Hint #3: They had just the fifth-most offensive touchdowns per game, getting unusual scoring support from their defense/special teams.
Most points scored| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Bills | +650 |
| Chiefs | +1000 |
| Chargers | +1000 |
| Rams | +1000 |
| Buccaneers | +1000 |
| Cowboys | +1500 |
| Ravens | +1600 |
| Bengals | +1600 |
| Packers | +1600 |
| Cardinals | +1800 |
| Browns | +1800 |
| Broncos | +1800 |
| Eagles | +1800 |
| Colts | +2000 |
| 49ers | +2000 |
| Raiders | +2500 |
| Dolphins | +2500 |
| Vikings | +2500 |
| Titans | +2500 |
| Patriots | +4000 |
| Saints | +4000 |
| Lions | +5000 |
| Jaguars | +5000 |
| Commanders | +5000 |
| Giants | +6000 |
| Jets | +6000 |
| Steelers | +6000 |
| Panthers | +7500 |
| Seahawks | +7500 |
| Falcons | +10000 |
| Bears | +10000 |
| Texans | +10000 |
The Cowboys led the NFL in points scored last season thanks to nine return touchdowns, helping them surpass the Buccaneers, Bills, and Chiefs - all of whom have shorter odds than Dallas coming into 2022. Those scores, plus the return of Dak Prescott, led to a season total of 530 points. Looking back at recent history, 500-plus total points should lead the league.
Non-offensive touchdowns are notoriously difficult to predict year-to-year, let alone game-to-game. The best we can do to handicap this market is to look at the basics - how do teams score points? In the simplest terms imaginable, touchdowns are better than field goals, and the closer you are to the end zone, the more likely you are to score a touchdown. Duh, right?
Well, the underlying metrics are what give us our own hint for who'll score the most points. Efficient offenses get into the red zone at a high frequency, and when they do, they convert those possessions into touchdowns at a high rate. As a result, we'll look for teams who'll increase both their volume of red-zone attempts and efficiency in 2022.
Best betsChargers (+1000)
In 2021, the Chargers had four red-zone trips per game in September and October but finished the season with 4.4. Their almost five red-zone trips per game in the back half of the campaign suggest big things for Justin Herbert's second season under Brandon Staley. L.A. converted those chances at the NFL's eighth-highest rate, so there's possible room for improvement for a team that saw pre-snap penalties, sacks, and turnovers frequently derail drives.
If the Chargers can create 4.6 red-zone opportunities per game, and convert those at a 67% rate, that would provide a base of 366 points. That's before we account for things that are more difficult to project - explosive offensive touchdowns (which Herbert is extremely capable of), the randomness of non-offensive scores, and field goals.
Staley's aggressive attitude on fourth down, when successful, allows the Chargers to extend possessions that other teams don't. When they're unsuccessful on fourth-down gambles, their offense is forced to play more urgently. Both results boost offensive volume. Plus, playing in a highly competitive division means more contests that'll come down to late-game scoring.
Broncos (+1800)
The Broncos also play in the AFC West, so they'll have the same urgency in those hotly contested games. Their red-zone metrics last season are completely useless thanks to the acquisition of their new star quarterback. Prior to Russell Wilson's injury, the Seahawks converted touchdowns at an almost 77% rate in the red zone. Their 2020 efficiency stood at 73.7%. Clearly, Wilson is a wizard from close to the goal line. The Seahawks' issue was that they didn't get inside the 20 all that often.
Under new head coach Nathaniel Hackett, a more aggressive offensive strategy than what Wilson suffered through under Pete Carroll should result in the Broncos getting more than the league-average 3.3 red-zone trips per game. Anything over four red-zone attempts per contest, converted at Wilson's usual rate, could put enough points on the board before factoring in long touchdowns, non-offensive scores, and field goals.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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