NFL Week 1 survivor picks: Strategizing for the long haul of 2022
Survivor contests are as popular as ever, often providing the biggest sweat each Sunday at minimal cost. Picking one game outright sounds easy until you're out after a Week 1 upset few saw coming. That's the rub with survivor pools though: It's not just about making it to next week, it's about making it to the end.
Circa Sportsbook in Las Vegas has hosted the world's largest survivor contests for two seasons, with thousands of contestants having to pick one team for 18 "weeks" in 2020, and 20 "weeks" last season - with Thanksgiving and Christmas games constituting their own slot. Each year, the grand prize was chopped after the season, indicating the importance of planning. I can promise you that losing in Week 1 is far less painful than losing in December.
Every week until we get knocked out, we'll map two paths to make it to the end of the season undefeated. As long as our entries are still standing, we'll use the moneylines for our picks to show the odds of making it the distance traveled along the path. Once we're out, though, we're out.
While we could provide a series of theoretical rules to follow - like "never take a road team" - a team's likelihood of winning each game is reflected in its moneyline, which we can easily translate into an implied win probability, listed in descending order in the chart below.
Week 1 moneylines| GAME | MONEYLINE | IWP |
|---|---|---|
| Colts (@ HOU) | -340 | 77.3% |
| Ravens (@ NYJ) | -300 | 75% |
| 49ers (@ CHI) | -300 | 75% |
| Bengals (vs. PIT) | -280 | 73.7% |
| Broncos (@ SEA) | -270 | 73% |
| Titans (vs. NYG) | -250 | 71.4% |
| Saints (@ ATL) | -240 | 70.6% |
| Chiefs (@ ARI) | -220 | 68.8% |
| Eagles (@ DET) | -200 | 66.7% |
| Chargers (vs. LV) | -175 | 63.6% |
| Dolphins (vs. NE) | -175 | 63.6% |
| Commanders (vs. JAX) | -155 | 60.8% |
| Panthers (vs. CLE) | -135 | 57.4% |
| Bills (@ LAR) | -135 | 57.4% |
| Packers (@ MIN) | -125 | 55.6% |
| Buccaneers (@ DAL) | -125 | 55.6% |
Schedule-makers didn't make it easy on survivor players in Week 1, with the three highest win probabilities coming from road teams. Home teams pull off upsets more regularly, but that's already built into the odds, and home-field advantage is less significant than it's ever been.
A rule I try to live by is to not pick a favorite if you like the underdog to cover the spread. The Colts might be the biggest favorite on the board, but if I like the Texans to at least keep it close at home, that leaves a small window for the Colts to win by one-to-six points. Meanwhile, if I think the Commanders cover -2.5 at home to the Jaguars, I'd rather take my chances with them given I expect Washington to win by three-plus points.
Survivor Path AWeek 1 is too early to map out your entire season-long survivor plan. Too many things change throughout the campaign, and we obviously don't know everything there is to know about these teams yet. What we'll do for the first few weeks - knock on wood - is look at the best options and where we might use them later in the season. We want to look ahead while remaining flexible.
The Ravens are the second-most likely team to win this week as touchdown favorites. Depending on how the Browns look with Jacoby Brissett under center, the Ravens might not be touchdown favorites again until Week 16 at home to the Falcons. If we burn the Ravens in Week 1, the Chiefs host the Seahawks, and the Vikings host the Giants on Christmas Eve, leaving us two options should we make it that far.
Pick: Ravens
Survivor Path BSpeaking of Week 16, the 49ers will host the Commanders and are projected touchdown favorites at home. With the options listed above, we don't need to keep San Francisco available for that week. With a tough schedule overall, the only other time the 49ers are significant favorites is next week when they host the Seahawks. Week 2 has way more options than Week 1 - the Rams hosting the Falcons, the Broncos hosting the Texans, and the Packers set for their annual walkover of the Bears at Lambeau Field.
It's not comfortable taking a quarterback as green as Trey Lance is on the road, but the 49ers scored a comeback win in Chicago last season despite being down at halftime. They've had success at Soldier Field but won't take the Bears lightly, knowing a good start to the Lance era is imperative.
Pick: 49ers
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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