MNF best bets: Straight, no chaser as Wilson returns to Seattle

Each Monday we'll finish off the week that was in the NFL with a look at value spots in the remaining game - under one condition: you promise not to chase. Whether Sunday provided a boost to the accounts or left a little to be desired, Monday Night Football provides an opportunity to show responsibility in your betting, as there will always be another wild Sunday to get lost in.

The Broncos' visit to the Seahawks features the immediate return of Russell Wilson in front of the 12s. After years of tagging every media interview with "Go Hawks," Wilson is ready to ride with the Broncos in the hyper-competitive AFC West. Does that mean he gets to automatically win this game? He would certainly love to, but there are upward of 50 former teammates who want to stand in his way.

This line has slowly crept up toward the full seven points, and if you're willing to swallow hard and back Seattle, you can do so at +7 (-120). For the Broncos, you can get -6.5 at -120. It should be no surprise that the total is below league average.

When it comes to prime-time games - especially those in front of a crowd like Lumen Field's that can have an effect on opposing offenses - if you're going to back the underdog, you want to do so early and in a short time frame.

It's expected to be a lost season in Seattle, but the Seahawks' rabid fanbase is getting this game before a bad record affects enthusiasm. We know Wilson is capable of second-half magic, so we'll hope the loud crowd can disrupt Wilson and his new teammates for a half.

If the participants on the field and in the stands bring energy, the Seahawks can hang in by shutting down the Broncos' ground game early. With the line for the game creeping up, the first-half point spread is coming with it, giving us more than a full field goal's worth of leeway.

Pick: Seahawks +4 first half (-120 or better)

Coutland Sutton over 61.5 receiving yards (-115)

We talked about Sutton's potential for a big season as a long shot for most receiving yards in the NFL should the Broncos' offense get looser with Wilson at the helm. If he's anywhere near where he was when he got hurt in Week 1 of 2020, Sutton won't be lined in the low 60s for many more weeks. If the game is close at halftime as we hope, Wilson may be forced to open things up and give Sutton ample opportunity to win down the field and along the sidelines.

Jason Myers over 1.5 field goals (+125)

Pete Carroll doesn't need to get talked into playing things conservatively, and he'll gladly take the points when he can with what shouldn't be a very explosive offense. The Hawks can game plan some offensive efficiency between the 20-yard lines, but with Geno Smith under center, they will likely stall in the red zone. When they do, Carroll will take the points with Myers, and at plus-money for a pair of field goals, it's worth making a bet that could be cashed early or provide viewing interest right up until this story ends.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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