Experts predicted a stalemate in Ukraine, here's why they keep getting it wrong | Orysia Lutsevych

Assumptions have been dramatically overturned. To really help Ukraine, a clearer picture of the war's dynamic is vital

Ukraine's recent stunning success in liberating a huge swathe of its territory from Russian occupation directly contradicted months of consensus opinion by commentators and experts who predicted that the war had settled into an indefinite stalemate. Public perception of the conflict, as well as important policy decisions, are swayed by such assumptions. At this stage we must ask: why do experts keep overestimating Russian strength and underestimating Ukraine's military capabilities, and how can they avoid doing so again?

One obvious point is that western states have gradually increased supplies of powerful and sophisticated weapons, and Ukraine's forces have convincingly demonstrated they can use them to powerful effect on the battlefield. But this is only part of the story.

Orysia Lutsevych is head of Chatham House's Ukraine Forum