Low vaccine uptake in Hamilton expected to result in more COVID hospitalizations this fall

Lower uptake of vaccines than expected in Hamilton has prompted an increase in the number of residents predicted to be hospitalized with COVID over the course of the fall.

Scarsin Forecasting has upped its estimate of COVID hospitalizations to 495 from Aug. 31 to Dec. 31, compared to its August prediction of 323.

Just over 50 per cent of those at highest risk for severe illness from COVID - age 70 and older - have had a fourth shot.

Among children age six months to four years, fewer than five per cent have had a first dose.

Children age five to 11 became eligible for a third shot on Sept. 1, but only 37 per cent of Hamilton kids in this age group have even had two doses.

Predicted hospital admissions have increased as vaccination uptake has been lower than previously assumed," stated the most-recent forecast.

Scarsin predicts nearly as many Hamiltonians age 59 and younger will be hospitalized as those age 80 and older - each group accounting for about one-quarter. Half of the hospitalizations are expected to be those age 60 to 79.

Vaccination remains the most important way to protect against COVID-19 and its health effects," stated the most recent COVID update by Hamilton public health.

Bivalent boosters that target both Omicron and the original COVID virus are available now to a number of high-risk groups and open up to anyone age 18 and older starting Sept. 26.

Reducing severe illness from COVID is significant because the higher estimate comes at the same time hospitals have been struggling with unprecedented overcrowding, staffing shortages and backlogs.

The pandemic continues to add to the strain, with St. Joseph's Healthcare caring for 31 COVID patients Monday, while 98 staff were self-isolating. Hamilton Health Sciences had 62 COVID patients in its hospitals on Sept. 14 and 119 staff off work due to the virus.

In addition, there were three active outbreaks at the Charlton Campus of St. Josephs, and one each at Hamilton General and Juravinski hospitals as of Sept. 16. There was a death on unit 5 West at Hamilton General in an outbreak that was declared over Sept. 14.

Overall, Hamilton had 20 active outbreaks in high-risk settings as of Sept. 16.

The city also reported the death of a senior in their 70s from COVID between Sept. 7 and Sept. 16, bringing Hamilton's pandemic fatalities to 610.

COVID-19 transmission in Hamilton is moderate and decreasing," stated the latest update Sept. 14. The number of reported cases, new COVID-19 hospitalizations, test positivity, wastewater signal and number of active outbreaks have all decreased over the past two weeks."

However, the forecasting predicts the seventh wave to greatly increase" in the fall.

New hospital admissions of Hamiltonians ... are predicted to level off and decrease, followed by an increase in the fall and early winter as Hamiltonians move indoors and more infectious BA.5 subvariant continues to circulate," stated the forecast on Sept. 14.

Joanna Frketich is a health reporter at The Spectator. jfrketich@thespec.com