To win an outright Commons majority, Labour will have to gamble

Surging poll numbers mean the party can dare to dream of No 10, but it's been here before, and the path is riskier than ever

Twelve short months ago, Boris Johnson's Conservatives were riding a vaccine bounce, and high-spirited Tory commentators were speculating about another decade in office. Now it is Labour who are buoyant, as their poll numbers surge to record highs after a disastrous mini-budget from the new Truss administration unleashed economic and political turmoil. Some in Labour now dare to dream big. Could their party rebound from the worst performance in 80 years straight to a Commons majority?

Veterans counsel caution. Labour has been burned before. Ed Miliband's opposition posted regular big poll leads during the coalition only for these to evaporate come polling day. But history never repeats itself exactly. Unless the economic weather changes fast, the next election will be fought in the wake of inflation, recession and home repossessions. The Conservatives' ratings on economic management are already the worst in a generation, with much of the real pain still to come. When their reputation was last torched like this, by the ERM crisis, the next result was a Labour landslide. Time to start humming Things Can Only Get Better?

Robert Ford is professor of political science at Manchester University and co-author of The British General Election of 2019