The big lesson from the first round of Brazil’s election: Bolsonarismo is here to stay | Christopher Sabatini

It seems likely that Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will eventually oust the president. Even if he does, a turbulent time in office awaits

The first lesson from Brazil's election on Sunday is that public opinion surveys severely misfired. Just a few days before the contest, many reported a 15% lead for Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva over the incumbent, Jair Bolsonaro; and many also predicted a Lula first-round victory. The second lesson is that, far from being a flash in the pan - as many had hoped - the rightwing populist movement Bolsonarismo is an organised political force, and it is here to stay, at least for the medium term.

Bolsonaro finished five percentage points behind the leftist former leader Lula - as he is popularly known. Bolsonaro's party and its allies also surprised in the legislative elections the same day, winning around two dozen seats in the senate and almost 100 in the chamber of deputies. While a Lula victory still appears likely on 30 October, the thin margin separating the two candidates promises an even more bruising, mud-slinging campaign, and sharpens the risk of post-election violence should the incumbent lose the runoff.

Christopher Sabatini is a senior research fellow in the Latin America, US and the Americas programme at Chatham House