NFL Week 5 player props: Quarterbacks who may not measure up

The irony isn't lost on me. On a week when we bet on the supposedly reliable, our card started with Alvin Kamara's surprise scratch. While that bet was voided, maybe it threw off the vibes as a rough 3-6-1 week knocked our overall record down to 20-19-1 for our ten favorite player props Sunday. The good news is you won't miss out on the run we usually go on here.

Daniel Jones under 28.5 rushing yards

We might be risking another last-minute scratch with Jones, but the Giants quarterback can't be his usual mobile self after getting banged up last week. Before Jones left the game early, the Bears seemed incapable of covering a rudimentary bootleg, allowing Jones to run in the Giants' only two touchdowns. When it comes to quarterback keepers, the Packers will be a little sharper, and Jones less willing.

Mike Gesicki over 20.5 receiving yards

Teddy Bridgewater gets the start. Denver tight ends led the team in receiving yards in four of Bridgewater's 15 games played for the Broncos last season. Known for keeping underdogs competitive against better opponents, Bridgewater loves taking the safe throw. Mike Gesicki provides an ideal big target to make life easier for the Dolphins quarterback, whose team is favored this week.

Drake London under 59.5 receiving yards

On the surface, without Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson, it might feel like London should go over his totals as the leftover weapon for the Falcons. However, the Buccaneers are well aware of that and should roll coverage toward London, forcing Marcus Mariota to go elsewhere to beat them.

Carson Wentz over 237.5 passing yards

Luckily for those backing Wentz to rack up yardage, he doesn't get docked for sacks or interceptions. Now that the Commanders are through the Eagles and Cowboys, they can get back to success through the air against a Titans defense. Tennessee ranks dead last in opponent passer rating and 30th in yards per pass attempt against.

Equanimeous St. Brown over 22.5 receiving yards

We're on record in saying that Justin Fields will have his best passing conditions of the season, but we won't get too carried away in betting his yardage total. Instead, we'll look to the No. 2 receiver on the Bears. St. Brown rose to a 95% snap rate last week, so he'll be available underneath deep threat Darnell Mooney at a lesser total because of the slow start to Chicago's passing game.

Justin Herbert over 271.5 passing yards

Herbert's been over this total in all four games, so why is it so relatively low? We're expecting a close contest where the 2-point favorite Chargers will have to throw for all 60 minutes. The Browns' defense is also mustering the 19th-best pass defense, despite facing quarterbacks Baker Mayfield, Joe Flacco, Mitch Trubisky, and Marcus Mariota. So, is it because of the conditions? A little wind shouldn't be an issue for Herbert's arm.

Kenny Pickett longest pass completion under 33.5 yards

Pickett wouldn't have fallen to the Steelers in the back half of the first round in April's draft if he had the same arm strength as Herbert. Windy conditions in Orchard Park might be an issue. The Steelers weren't successful throwing deep with Mitch Trubisky, and that won't change on the road against the Bills.

Jared Goff under 238.5 passing yards

We faded Goff last week. Whoops. We forgot to factor in how terrible the Seahawks' defense might be. The same issues for the Lions' offense exist this week, but now it's Bill Belichick game planning on the other side, and there's no roof overhead for Goff. The Patriots keep the ball away from Detroit and confuse the Lions' quarterback when he has it.

Alvin Kamara over 26.5 receiving yards

Should we try him again? Why not! Assuming Kamara's back in the lineup, all the same components to last week's handicap apply. Andy Dalton threw it three times to Mark Ingram and once to Latavius Murray. Kamara is a more appealing target and far more likely to crack a big one than those two.

Jimmy Garoppolo under 218.5 passing yards

At 6.0 yards per pass attempt against, the Panthers' defense is pretty good at holding down the quarterbacks they've faced. Garoppolo and the 49ers' passing game are comparable to Kyler Murray, Jameis Winston, Jacoby Brissett, and Jones. San Francisco is much more likely to build a big lead via defense and the run game, so there won't be a need to put the ball in harm's way on the road.

Cam Akers under 45.5 rushing yards

If this sounds familiar, we made this play Monday night, and it cruised. It might be a little tighter this time around, given the Cowboys' run defense doesn't have the yards-per-carry numbers. But Akers isn't Leonard Fournette or Saquon Barkley. Both those tailbacks had success against Dallas this season.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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