MNF best bets: Another Chiefs' blowout under the prime-time lights?

Each Monday, we'll finish off the week that was in the NFL with a look at value spots in the remaining game under one condition: you promise not to chase. Whether Sunday boosted the accounts or left little to be desired, Monday Night Football provides an opportunity to show responsibility in your betting. There will always be another wild Sunday to get lost in.

The Chiefs play their second consecutive prime-time game, returning home after a comfortable win in Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, the Raiders field goal-kicked their way to their first win of the season last week against the Broncos. This is a matchup largely dominated by the Chiefs, except for an outlier victory by the Raiders in Kansas City in 2020. Last season, despite Vegas qualifying for the playoffs, the Chiefs outscored the Raiders 89-23.

This was supposed to be a new era for the Raiders, with Josh McDaniels coordinating an offense that added Davante Adams to an already solid group of weapons surrounding Derek Carr. However, Vegas is outside the top 10 in yards per play, scoring just eight touchdowns in four games.

The point spread has been glued to the key number of -7 all week. Given their seemingly electric offensive performance last Sunday, it's more likely the Chiefs will take enough money to coerce sportsbooks to move the line to -7.5 since there would likely be buyback on the Raiders at that number. In fact, that's what I'd need to play a side in this game.

What the contest in Tampa might have created, though, is an inauthentic assessment of where the Chiefs' offense is right now. Patrick Mahomes' spectacular play frustrated the Buccaneers and their backers, but Kansas City was gifted an ideal game script with Tampa's fumble on the opening kickoff. However, the Chiefs' season average of 6.0 yards per play is skewed by netting 7.4 YPP in Week 1 against a short-handed Cardinals defense.

With just 5.53 YPP between Weeks 2-4, the Chiefs' offense would rank right in the middle of the league in that category - next to Vegas. The Raiders played in a game that scored 50-plus points in regulation for the first time last week, but their 2-for-5 red-zone efficiency was in line with their 44% rate on the season - tied with Carolina for 27th.

Neither team has lived up to offensive expectations, and the market is seemingly unaware of it. We'll make a play on the under, hoping that Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo continues to one-up McDaniels, while Kansas City maintains its more average offensive output that we saw against the Chargers and Colts.

Pick: Under 51.5 points

Josh Jacobs over 18.5 receiving yards

If you look at Jacobs' season stats, his 90 receiving yards through four games - 22.5 per contest - don't provide much of an edge on this number. However, Jacobs' targets went from one in each of the first two games to five and six in the last two, with the running back catching ten passes total.

This is the most points the Raiders have been handed this season. They'd like to pound Jacobs on the ground, but McDaniels now knows they can throw him the ball should Vegas find themselves trailing as expected. With the three other tailbacks on the roster combining for just nine snaps last week, there isn't really another option.

JuJu Smith-Schuster under 51.5 receiving yards

We might be getting drawn into an uncomfortable position, but Smith-Schuster has been lined at 50.5 yards for the previous two games. It's not like this line is particularly lower than usual. However, Smith-Schuster hit the injury report with hamstring tightness on Saturday. While it seems like he'll play, there's an increased probability that he won't get his usual 70% share of the snaps, and that's not reflected in his yardage total.

Isiah Pacheco anytime touchdown (+340)

If you're feeling a little spicy, Pacheco is third in snaps but second in carries when it comes to Kansas City's running backs. He would get the lion's share of the carries should the Chiefs need to salt the game away late. At a big price, Pacheco might be worth a taste to score.

Jakob Johnson anytime touchdown (+1500)

If you want to get really spicy, Johnson has one catch on one target for one yard this season. However, the Raiders fullback's snap count rose to a season-high 35% last week. If Vegas is looking for a surprise target at the goal line, maybe there's a play-action pass to the fullback left over from the previous regime's game plans.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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