NFL Week 6 round-robin underdog moneyline parlay

We came close to sweeping our moneyline underdogs, and yet, only two actually won. Another 4-1 week against the spread pushes the overall record to 18-5-2 ATS and 11-13-1 on the moneyline this season, but it would be nice if the winners could consolidate into one week.

The Commanders' first-and-goal fail, the Bears' brief lead late in the fourth quarter, and Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury clunking their heads together with a chance to beat the Eagles all prevented a big win on our weekly bonus bet.

How it works

We parlay five underdogs together - whom we like against the spread - in 10 different three-team parlays. Using every combination of a three-team parlay is called a round robin, so we're going to use a total of 1.1 units to make 11 different bets: 10 three-team parlays and one five-team parlay, each for .1 units. You'll likely double your money if three teams pull off the upset. If four teams win, you're connecting on four separate parlays and will be very pleased with the return. If all five teams win, as they did for us in Week 1 last season, you'll be diving into a gold doubloon silo like a young Scrooge McDuck.

Who to play

Steelers +320

"Oh great, a team that lost 38-3 last week." - Someone, probably.

Maybe the Steelers have degraded to the worst team in the NFL, but the masses left the Titans for dead too after they got walloped by the Bills. All they've done since is win every game.

Obviously, the Buccaneers are better than the teams Tennessee has beaten, but this is fundamentally a value play. Even after Tampa Bay got downgraded after its high-profile loss to the Chiefs, I still have the appropriate point spread for this game at just under a touchdown. There's value in taking the Steelers (+8) against the spread. This could be a one-score Bucs win, so a +320 moneyline is just too high and worth including in our collection of moneyline sprinkles.

Dolphins +150

Before leg injuries slowed him at Kansas State, Skylar Thompson was a legitimate threat with his legs. In fact, pre-draft scouting reports liked his athleticism more than his arm strength. In the preseason, Thompson had seven rush attempts in his limited work. Last week, when thrust into action, Thompson didn't run once. Why? Because that wasn't in a game plan designed for Teddy Bridgewater and there were no quarterbacks behind Thompson should he have gotten hurt.

With Thompson starting and Bridgewater backing up, Mike McDaniel can tailor a more unique game plan to Thompson's skills and have him run the offense for a week of practice.

Look for an improved effort from the Dolphins as a whole and the Vikings' luck to dry up on the road, allowing a closer game than even a 3.5-point line expects. The Dolphins even have a chance to win.

Patriots +130

The Browns got Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney back last week, but it didn't matter - the defense was still bad. Cleveland allowed 465 yards to the Chargers, but the real concern was that half of that was on the ground. That's what the Patriots want to do too, as they did against the Lions last week.

Also like last week, the Patriots are familiar with the opposing quarterback, and Bill Belichick's defense will do everything it can to force Jacoby Brissett to beat them. He won't.

Panthers +375

This is another value play. A double-digit spread assumes a downgrade with Matt Rhule fired and Baker Mayfield sidelined, but who was loving what either was doing? Mayfield was dead last in QBR and passer rating, so how much worse can P.J. Walker be?

The mobile Walker can do more than Cooper Rush did last week, and the Cowboys won outright thanks to defense and special teams. The Panthers' run game and defense are, at the very least, average. With Steve Wilks taking over as interim head coach, he should bring the kitchen sink to try to steal a possession or two. The Panthers will get an additional boost via subtraction and play the struggling Rams close.

Broncos +190

It's not as juicy as it was when the line opened at Broncos +6.5, and it's just as uncomfortable given what we've seen from Denver's offense, but a back-to-basics approach on the ground will work against the Chargers. The Broncos' defense is still solid, and we know L.A. plays a high-variance style. If those fourth downs don't go the Chargers' way, the Broncos can stun them Monday night.

Here's how the odds look this week:

PARLAY	ODDS (Approx.)
MIA+NE+PIT	+2100
MIA+NE+CAR	+2500
MIA+NE+DEN	+1500
MIA+PIT+CAR	+2800
MIA+PIT+DEN	+2900
MIA+CAR+DEN	+3300
NE+PIT+CAR	+4200
NE+PIT+DEN	+2600
NE+CAR+DEN	+3000
PIT+CAR+DEN	+5600
MIA+NE+PIT+CAR+DEN	+31500

Who are your five underdogs for a football betting lottery ticket?

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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