NHL weekly betting guide: True moneylines for every game
Every team is off and skating, but through as few as one game or as many as four, is there anything to be sure of when it comes to any team? Of course not. Three-goal leads have evaporated and upsets have occurred. Any rush to judgment is probably foolish, at least relative to prior expectations.
We had a prior perception of every team. They weren't all equally valued before the season, so a particularly good or bad first week of the season shouldn't change much in our overall ratings. Season point total markets suggested teams like the Blue Jackets, Sharks, and Blackhawks weren't going to be good, so those three starting with a collective 0-9 record and minus-24 goal margin doesn't change anything. However, neither does a rough couple of games for teams like the Canucks, Devils, and Wild. Modest expectations shouldn't be thrown away due to an easily reversible negative goal margin.
We'll stick with our priors for all teams and wait for more in-season metrics to pile up before making even the slightest change.
The recipeWe started the season by using regular-season point totals as a baseline for rating teams, as it remains the best measurement we have. Over the course of the season, we'll start adjusting team ratings using our on-ice metrics of choice to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records. Since that can be skewed by various outliers like special teams results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events like three-on-three overtime and the shootout.
The cheat sheetThe following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for a team on the second leg of a back-to-back without travel and will make a best-guess on an injured player's impact on his team's win probability.
When the games' betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "Price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. At some point between market open and puck drop, there's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a range where it's betable as well.
| DATE | GAME | TRUE ML | PRICE TO BET |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 17 | VAN@WSH | +120/-120 | VAN +141/WSH -115 |
| FLA@BOS | -105/+105 | FLA +105/BOS +116 | |
| ANA@NYR | +166/-166 | ANA +197/NYR -159 | |
| PIT@MTL | -160/+160 | PIT -153/MTL +190 | |
| ARI@TOR | +283/-283 | ARI +353/TOR -269 | |
| LAK@DET | -114/+114 | LAK -110/DET +135 | |
| COL@MIN | -107/+107 | COL +103/MIN +118 | |
| WPG@DAL | +132/-132 | WPG +156/DAL -127 | |
| CAR@SEA | -137/+137 | CAR -132/SEA +162 | |
| Oct. 18 | ANA@NJD | +165/-165 | ANA +197/NJD -158 |
| VAN@CBJ | -104/+104 | VAN +106/CBJ +115 | |
| BOS@OTT | +111/-111 | BOS +123/OTT +100 | |
| PHI@TB | +211/-211 | PHI +255/TB -201 | |
| SJS@NYI | +158/-158 | SJS +188/NYI -152 | |
| VGK@CGY | +131/-131 | VGK +155/CGY -126 | |
| BUF@EDM | +192/-192 | BUF +230/EDM -184 | |
| LAK@NSH | +140/-140 | LAK +165/NSH -134 | |
| Oct. 19 | PHI@FLA | +297/-297 | PHI +372/FLA -282 |
| WPG@COL | +181/-181 | WPG +217/COL -174 | |
| STL@SEA | -121/+121 | STL -117/SEA +143 | |
| Oct. 20 | NSH@CBJ | -139/+139 | NSH -133/CBJ +164 |
| WSH@OTT | -103/+103 | WSH +107/OTT +114 | |
| ARI@MTL | +129/-129 | ARI +152/MTL -124 | |
| SJS@NYR | +178/-178 | SJS +212/NYR -170 | |
| DAL@TOR | +145/-145 | DAL +171/TOR -139 | |
| ANA@BOS | +163/-163 | ANA +194/BOS -156 | |
| LAK@PIT | +126/-126 | LAK +148/PIT -121 | |
| NJD@NYI | +117/-117 | NJD +137/NYI -112 | |
| VAN@MIN | +135/-135 | VAN +159/MIN -129 | |
| CAR@EDM | +112/-112 | CAR +132/EDM -108 | |
| BUF@CGY | +195/-195 | BUF +235/CGY -187 | |
| WPG@VGK | +167/-167 | WPG +199/VGK -160 | |
| Oct. 21 | TB@FLA | +125/-125 | TB +147/FLA -120 |
| DET@CHI | -120/+120 | DET -116/CHI +142 | |
| SEA@COL | +216/-216 | SEA +261/COL -206 | |
| Oct. 22 | SJS@NJD | +156/-156 | SJS +185/NJD -149 |
| MIN@BOS | +109/-109 | MIN +121/BOS +101 | |
| STL@EDM | +127/-127 | STL +150/EDM -122 | |
| ARI@OTT | +173/-173 | ARI +206/OTT -166 | |
| PIT@CBJ | -154/+154 | PIT -147/CBJ +182 | |
| NYI@TB | +115/-115 | NYI +136/TB -111 | |
| DAL@MTL | -141/+141 | DAL -135/MTL +166 | |
| TOR@WPG | -125/+125 | TOR -120/WPG +147 | |
| LAK@WSH | +109/-109 | LAK +120/WSH +102 | |
| PHI@NSH | +183/-183 | PHI +219/NSH -175 | |
| COL@VGK | -114/+114 | COL -110/VGK +134 | |
| CAR@CGY | +114/-114 | CAR +134/CGY -110 | |
| BUF@VAN | +154/-154 | BUF +183/VAN -148 | |
| Oct. 23 | SEA@CHI | -114/+114 | SEA -110/CHI +135 |
| CBJ@NYR | +244/-244 | CBJ +299/NYR -232 | |
| ANA@DET | +122/-122 | ANA +144/DET -117 | |
| NYI@FLA | +190/-190 | NYI +229/FLA -182 | |
| SJS@PHI | +109/-109 | SJS +120/PHI +102 |
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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