NHL Tuesday best bets: Lightning to rebound vs. Flyers

It's another busy night in the NHL with eight games scheduled Tuesday.

Let's take a closer look at a couple of home sides worth backing.

The Philadelphia Flyers are off to a surprising 2-0 start, but don't let that fool you: they haven't played overly well.

While the effort is there under new head coach John Tortorella, it's only going to take the team so far. The Flyers still severely lack talent and depth, which is why their underlying process leaves a lot to be desired so far.

They've controlled only 41% of the expected goals share at five-on-five. That slots them ahead of only the Arizona Coyotes, Anaheim Ducks, and Columbus Blue Jackets - not great company.

Philadelphia grades out even worse in terms of high-danger chances; their share sits just above 30%. On a per-minute basis, they rank bottom five in high-danger chances against.

That spells trouble against the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Bolts have generated almost 13 high-danger chances per 60 at five-on-five, which is a high-end clip. They should be able to get quality looks in bulk against Philadelphia and have the talent to take advantage.

Tampa's off to a disappointing 1-2 start but all three games were played on the road. One was against a tough opponent in the Rangers, and the club played in Pittsburgh with Brian Elliott between the pipes.

I like the Lightning's chances of rebounding at home against a Flyers team that is playing over its head early. Beyond the puck line, backing the Lighting to win the first period at +110 is also an intriguing option.

Bet: Lightning -1.5 (-120)

Both teams enter play with losing records but the underlying numbers tell drastically different stories of where they're at.

The Ducks have been a disaster defensively, allowing expected goals at a higher clip than all but the Coyotes at five-on-five. They're giving up chances in bulk each and every night, translating to 17 goals against through three games.

Meanwhile, the Devils are winless, too, but they've done a lot of good. They've actually controlled better than 70% of the expected goals share at five-on-five, dominating the run of play.

They haven't been able to convert that into a win because of horrific goaltending. The Devils own a .780 team save percentage in the early going.

For perspective, the Ducks are averaging nearly six goals against per night and their save percentage sits slightly below .870. That's a drastic difference.

Half-decent goaltending should be enough to get the Devils in the win column thanks to how efficiently they're generating chances and how poorly the Ducks are preventing them.

Look for New Jersey to exploit a poor defensive side playing its third road game in four nights.

Bet: Devils in regulation (-125)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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