NFL Week 6 betting takeaways: Where oddsmakers rate the teams
If you took your spreadsheet with the power-rated list of teams, flipped it over, and read it upside down, you probably had pretty solid betting results in Week 6.
A truckload of upsets in the early window on Sunday saw more wins for the New York teams, an opportunistic Falcons squad, and a stunner by the Steelers. Then the Seahawks got back on track in a thoroughly weird game with the Cardinals. Maybe it's because the completion of Week 6 wraps up the first third of the season, but just about every upset feels like a bigger deal than a one-game hiccup.
How ratings workWe look at the betting market's assessment of each team based on the closing lines from the previous week's games and then we estimate what each club is capable of going forward. The "rating" column is an educated guess at the oddsmakers' rating to create a point spread before their most recent game. The number itself represents the percentage chance that a team beats an average opponent on a neutral field.
The range column is my evaluation of each team's potential after seeing them play this past week. Obviously, clubs don't perform at the same level every week; they play within a range. It's our job as handicappers to predict how they'll perform based on things like the situation, on-field matchups, and roster/injury issues. The earlier it is in the season, the wider a team's range may be.
Rating before Week 6 kickoff| TEAM | RATING | RANGE |
|---|---|---|
| Bills | 85 | 70-85 |
| Chiefs | 70 | 65-85 |
| Buccaneers | 69 | 60-80 |
| Eagles | 65 | 50-75 |
| Rams | 62 | 55-75 |
| Ravens | 62 | 55-70 |
| Packers | 60 | 55-75 |
| 49ers | 59 | 50-75 |
| Bengals | 59 | 50-70 |
| Chargers | 58 | 55-75 |
| Vikings | 56 | 45-70 |
| Raiders | 54 | 40-60 |
| Cardinals | 51 | 30-60 |
| Browns | 48 | 40-65 |
| Cowboys | 48 | 40-70 |
| Broncos | 45 | 45-65 |
| Colts | 45 | 45-65 |
| Jaguars | 45 | 30-50 |
| Patriots | 45 | 40-60 |
| Titans | 44 | 40-60 |
| Saints | 41 | 40-60 |
| Lions | 41 | 30-50 |
| Jets | 41 | 25-40 |
| Falcons | 41 | 30-50 |
| Commanders | 39 | 30-50 |
| Giants | 37 | 25-50 |
| Dolphins | 36 | 45-70 |
| Seahawks | 33 | 25-40 |
| Bears | 32 | 30-45 |
| Panthers | 31 | 25-45 |
| Steelers | 30 | 35-50 |
| Texans | 28 | 25-40 |
By making the Bills 3-point favorites at Kansas City against the consensus second-best team in the NFL, oddsmakers widened the gap between top-rated Buffalo and the Chiefs. Was this fair? On one hand, the Bills' 4-point win covered all numbers, but on the other hand, the Chiefs were covering the spread for 59 minutes.
Arguably more interesting - who's third? The Buccaneers got as high as 10-point road favorites, but that may have had more to do with the market discounting the Steelers due to all their defensive injuries. Regardless, that was an obvious two-way overreaction, and the Bucs should drop again while the Steelers float back up.
The Eagles' rating hasn't moved in a while, and I'm sure Philly fans aren't thrilled about that, even if we had a feeling they might be undefeated at this point. They'll have to take solace in having a really good record thanks to a pretty comfortable schedule. Still, it's undeniable that, since we put the Eagles at 65/100, their games have hovered around the point spread. We'll see how, if at all, oddsmakers change their rating after their bye week.
The Packers have relinquished any claim to being a top team. Oddsmakers were on this last week, adjusting Green Bay down and the Jets up even before New York's upset win - creating a spread of around a touchdown. The crazy thing is, they might need to tighten the two even further.
A high volume of injuries affected the 49ers' and Saints' ratings, whereas Skylar Thompson starting affected opinion on the Dolphins. With 458 yards for Miami and 399 yards for New Orleans, both teams should have covered, but in a 30-second span, Jaylen Waddle fumbled and Tyrann Mathieu blew a tackle.
The Cardinals play the Saints on Thursday night, and oddsmakers appear lost when it comes to Arizona after giving the team a boost last week that never made much sense. With injuries still an issue for the Saints and the Cardinals getting Kyler Murray's favorite target back, these teams appear closer to even.
Speaking of even ratings, the closing line of around -1.5 in Indianapolis suggested the Jaguars and Colts are virtually the same, and their game didn't disprove that theory.
The Patriots' status as underdogs in Cleveland suggested they're a below-average team, which is just flat wrong. New England should see a big boost back to where it was last season as a playoff-caliber team.
The Texans didn't play last week, and if they're still considered the worst team in the league after their bye - with a 4-1 record ATS - then that's a mistake, mainly because the Panthers exist. A team that showed no ability on offense, Carolina also demonstrated more (misdirected) passion off the field than on it against the Rams, who were seemingly trying to give that game away.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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