Scott Radley: Cutting taxes is a big deal to many Hamilton residents. Are candidates listening?

We've spent a lot of time through this municipal election campaign talking about housing. With good reason. In a city that's become uncomfortably expensive, it's a big deal.

Don't take our word for it, just look at the numbers from a new Mainstreet Research poll for iPolitics that came out this week. Asked to name the most important issue facing the city, 37.1 per cent of respondents pointed to this. Creating affordable housing was the No. 1 thing cited.

Surprised? You shouldn't be. You might be by what came next, though.

Second on the list has to be transit improvements since it's talked about so much, right? Nope, not close. Only 8.3 per cent said that was most important. Increased or improved city services? Even fewer chose that. Just 7.1 per cent.

Decreasing taxes.

Yup. One in four people said sending less cash to city hall was their biggest issue. Not controlling taxes or keeping tax increases modest. Decreasing taxes. That's three times the number who chose public transit improvements and nearly four times the number pointing to those increased services. It was also an issue agreed upon reasonably evenly by men and woman, most age groups and most income brackets.

It's an illuminating peek into the minds of voters. Those would be the same people paying just over $6,000 in property taxes on a home assessed at $500,000 (according to a 2021 report by Zoocasa) compared to $3,000 for a similarly assessed home in Toronto, $3,900 in Burlington and $5,000 in Ottawa.

And the same people who are facing a preliminary 6.9 per cent tax increase in 2023 and another 4.3 per cent hike in 2024. Plus a predicted 6.49 per cent jump in water and wastewater charges next year followed by 6.36 per cent more in 2024.

We're going to tax people right out of home ownership," outgoing Ward 15 councillor Judi Partridge said a few months ago.

A fair number of people clearly share her concerns since this poll shows even stronger support for tax reductions than a similar one done by Mainstreet in late July.

Let's be honest with ourselves before we go any further. The thought of a decrease is a pipe dream. Taxes aren't about to go down. Not with all those things mentioned above and many of the city's collective agreements expiring on Dec. 31. All the unions are going to want decent raises for their thousands of members. That alone will require more cash be directed into the public trough.

And the incoming councillors are probably also going to want to do something impactful to make their mark. That could mean spending. Based on this poll, many citizens would seem amenable to that if it helped with housing.

But after that?

For a long time now (and through this campaign), we've heard much talk about expanding public transit. A number of candidates have even pledged to get rid of area rating so those in the suburbs - many who have lousy bus service - will pay more taxes to make that happen. Whether these folks ever plan to use it or not.

Many don't seem to, by the way. That same survey found 52.6 per cent of respondents don't use public transit regularly and 16.1 per cent more say we already have enough transit options. Fewer than a third said we need more.

So in a time of soaring inflation with a recession looming and property taxes already high, way more people want the new council to find ways to keep citizens' cash in their own pockets rather than finding ways to spend it.

Doesn't mean other things might not be important. Doesn't mean nothing else should be done except housing. It simply suggests people are feeling tapped out and squeezed and they're not a bottomless pit.

Question is, will whoever wins listen?

In the candidate surveys you can find on thespec.com, fewer than a third of those running even mentioned taxes when they were asked about their top three priorities. So this may be a bit of a blind spot. And reducing taxes - or even minimizing the increases - has hardly been a dominant theme of the campaign. We've heard mentions here and there, but it's not been one of the main talking points.

Based on this poll, perhaps it should be.

Scott Radley is a Hamilton-based columnist at The Spectator. Reach him via email: sradley@thespec.com