Key takeaways and analysis from Week 7 in the NFL

Sunday Rundown recaps the most important developments from the day's action and examines their significance moving forward.

The Bucs have problems Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

Last week, when the Bucs fell to 3-3 after getting embarrassed by the Steelers, we surmised that Tom Brady could be missing Rob Gronkowski. The rationale was that somehow convincing the future Hall of Famer to again come out of retirement, or finding a different tight end before the trade deadline, could go a long way toward addressing Tampa Bay's passing-game deficiencies over the middle of the field and in the red zone.

Anyway, forget that. The idea of any one player from outside the building fixing the offense, even if it were Gronk in his prime, suddenly seems an underestimation of the dire state of things in Tampa Bay. Scoring all of three points in a loss to the Panthers, the consensus worst team in football, is a stunning new low for a Bucs team that had enjoyed nothing but success since Brady's arrival. It's bizarre.

Tampa Bay's loss to Pittsburgh as a 9.5-point favorite in Week 6 at the time stood as the biggest upset in the NFL this season. For the Buccaneers to top that unwanted record just one week later without even mustering a touchdown against a team that fired its coach and has begun to sell off players ahead of the trade deadline says it all.

Brady, by all accounts, looks fine. Perhaps not his usual elite self, but he's still making big-time throws while also taking care of the ball. The offense as a whole is a different story. The run game, which provided an important element of balance over the last two years, is suddenly nonexistent. And although the talent at receiver is outstanding, it feels like playmakers are never schemed into space. And when they are, costly mistakes - like Mike Evans' dropped deep TD against the Panthers - stall the offense.

Things aren't much better on the other side of the ball, either. The run defense, which has always been so dominant under Todd Bowles, is suddenly performing at a league-average level. The pass defense remains stout, but with injuries piling up in the secondary, that unit is starting to fall apart, too.

It's all bad in Tampa Bay right now, and there are no clear solutions. If you want a really fun thought exercise, consider the possibility that Brady saw this coming, unlikely as it may seem. Might that explain why he wanted out last offseason?

New WRs, same old Chiefs Ezra Shaw / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Few players in NFL history have been capable of impacting a game the way Tyreek Hill does on a weekly basis - especially when he was paired with Patrick Mahomes. It was only natural, then, for some to assume there would be at least a bit of a drop-off from the Chiefs following his trade to Miami.

We're not about to say that the offense is better without Hill, because that isn't quite possible when it comes to a player of his rare skill set, but Kansas City isn't having any issues ushering in a new era. Sunday's win over the 49ers was the latest demonstration that this unit is still nightmare fuel for opponents.

Travis Kelce remains the league's premier tight end and by far Mahomes' No. 1 target in big moments - see the duo's four touchdown connections on Monday Night Football in Week 5. Replacing Hill's presence on the outside has been a group effort, though. By all indications, the Chiefs absolutely nailed their pair of free-agent additions on that front.

JuJu Smith-Schuster picked up the majority of the slack in vacant targets, emerging primarily as a reliable chain-mover for Mahomes when defenses sit deep to take away the big play, as they've done across the league this year. He also displayed his ability after the catch against the 49ers, and he finished the day with seven receptions for 124 yards and one touchdown.

When teams have had enough of getting diced up by Kelce and Smith-Schuster underneath, rotating down out of their two-high coverages, Marquez Valdes-Scantling goes to work. The former Packers wideout, who also joined as a free agent following the Hill trade, showed off his big-play ability with three catches for 111 yards on Sunday, including a huge 57-yarder early in the fourth quarter to help set up a touchdown that would see the Chiefs pull away.

And all this - the best performance for each new wideout in their short time with the Chiefs - against a 49ers defense that started the season on a pace that drew comparisons to historic units like the 2000 Ravens.

Mahomes is, of course, the main piece to the puzzle. Any offense that features one of the most talented passers this game has ever seen is bound to be some level of good. But with the near-perfect personnel moves to replace an irreplaceable weapon at receiver and the genius of Andy Reid making the necessary adjustments to put all the pieces together, the Chiefs' offense isn't just good - it's as unstoppable as it's ever been.

Hanging 44 points and 529 yards on the 49ers is the kind of statement we probably shouldn't have needed, but it's absolutely one we can't ignore, either.

Packers extra cooked? Scott Taetsch / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Even if we were counting the Packers out after last week's loss to the Jets (we were), it was only logical to assume they wouldn't lose to Taylor Heinicke and the Commanders, right? ... Right?

Ah, well.

After barely escaping with an overtime win against Bailey Zappe and the Patriots, the Packers have now been upset in three straight games - against the Giants, Jets, and Commanders.

Aaron Rodgers finished this latest defeat with two touchdowns on 23-of-35 passing for 194 yards - a dismal 5.5 yards per attempt. Despite the poor results, which looked even worse before a late surge, Green Bay just kept throwing.

The offensive line's issues are a factor here, as was the second-half deficit, but to give Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon a combined 12 carries against a 25th-ranked Washington run defense feels particularly irresponsible with the passing game doing next to nothing.

Whatever the explanation, we're long past the point of being able to write this off as Green Bay working out some early-season kinks. The upsets won't continue, but only because the Packers will stop getting so much credit for past achievements. This is a new team, and all indications are that it'll do nothing with what remains of a generational quarterback's career.

After consecutive years in which Rodgers seemed to seriously consider retirement, you have to wonder how much this season could impact his thought process for 2023.

A new star in Seattle Harry How / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Kenneth Walker should be your runaway favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year.

A preseason injury forced him to miss Week 1 and then slowly work his way into the rotation, so the counting stats aren't quite there yet. Based on what he's done since taking over the starting job in place of Rashaad Penny, though, Walker is trending through the roof.

The second-round rookie was one of the best players on the field for the second time in as many weeks Sunday against the Chargers, leading the way to a massive Seahawks win with 168 rushing yards and two touchdowns. The dagger, with Seattle looking to close things out in the fourth quarter, came when he shredded L.A. en route to a 74-yard score.

For a young player who missed so much time during the preseason, Walker looks remarkably comfortable at the professional level. His combination of explosiveness, lateral agility, and contract balance are making him as good as any running back league-wide when it comes to creating yards beyond what's blocked for him. And the Seahawks are already doing a hell of a job run-blocking.

Kenneth Walker gained 168 yards & 2 TD on 23 carries, surpassing 100 yards for the first time in a game in his career.

Walker has gained a league-high +174 rushing yards over expected since taking over for Rashaad Penny in Week 5.#SEAvsLAC | #Seahawks pic.twitter.com/bNWse1pjVB

- Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 23, 2022

Geno Smith playing at such a high level already had the Seahawks offense in good hands. Add a dynamic running game to the mix, and you become even more difficult to stop.

Walker is quickly emerging as one of the league's brightest young stars at the position. How many teams at the back end of the first round are regretting letting the Michigan State standout fall all the way to the Seahawks at No. 41?

Quick slants

Welcome back, Dak

Cooper Neill / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Dak Prescott didn't exactly light it up in his highly anticipated return to the field Sunday, but he was always going to need a few weeks to get his timing and feel back after missing five games with a thumb injury. For the star quarterback to work so efficiently in his first action since the season opener, leading the way to a comfortable win over Detroit, is a great sign for a Dallas team that has the potential to do some real damage in the NFC. When Dak returns to playing like a top-10 quarterback, as he has for much of his career, the Cowboys won't have many weaknesses.

Burrow, Bengals dominate

Very few teams can expect to line up in man coverage against the Bengals and not have an extremely Bad Time. The Falcons are not one of those teams. Atlanta's defensive backs had no chance when put out on an island against a supremely talented Bengals receiving corps, and Joe Burrow took full advantage with one of the best games of his career. Completing 34-of-42 for 481 yards and three touchdowns is just about as perfect as it gets. Ja'Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd were unguardable, each hauling in eight passes for a combined 285 yards and three scores, while Tee Higgins added 93 yards of his own. In a year when the Bengals have at times struggled against two-high defenses, the Falcons moved away from that and instead asked their secondary to do the impossible. That was certainly a choice.

At least throw it sometimes

After last week's win over the 49ers, we gave the Falcons, and head coach Arthur Smith, a well-deserved shoutout for a genius run game. We're not rescinding the compliment or anything, but throw a pass once in a while, would you? Leaning on a dominant run game when you're winning, or at least in a tight game, is one thing. To trail the Bengals by multiple possessions for the majority of the day - and by 18 points for the last 20 minutes of game time - only to finish with 13 total pass attempts is admitting you don't trust your quarterback. If you can't even put the ball in Marcus Mariota's hands when the game is nearly a wrap, it's probably time to give rookie Desmond Ridder a shot.

Ravens struggling to finish games

A win is a win, especially when it comes against a division rival, but the Ravens have got to stop doing this. Each of Baltimore's three losses so far this season have involved blown fourth-quarter leads, and they didn't exactly close out Sunday's victory over the Browns in convincing fashion. Everyone can see the talent the Ravens have throughout the roster, and Lamar Jackson is the kind of MVP-caliber player who can do it all himself when nothing else is working. But until this team stops having to sweat out every single game, it's tough to put Baltimore in a class with the rest of the AFC's elite.

Jacobs absolutely feasting

Ethan Miller / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Josh Jacobs' ascent to becoming one of the NFL's premier runners gives the Raiders a chance every week. The former first-round pick has always been a talented player, as we saw throughout his Pro Bowl rookie season in 2019. But the two years that followed were filled with injury issues and subpar offensive line play. Now healthy, finally getting some help from the big guys up front, and working in a more diverse Josh McDaniels run scheme, Jacobs' unique ability to create - both by way of elusiveness and physicality - is generating massive production. After leading Las Vegas to a win over the Texans with 143 rushing yards and three touchdowns, he's now third behind only Nick Chubb and Saquon Barkley with 633 yards on the year. The Raiders' new regime is going to regret not picking up Jacobs' fifth-year contract option for 2023.

All they do is win

The New York Giants, folks. Nobody truly believes in them, and it's almost as if they thrive in this existence. It's incredible, really, and one of the most enjoyable stories of this season. People will tell you eking out close games isn't a sustainable way of winning, and they'd be right. But there's something to be said for the Giants always making a play in the moments that decide these tightly contested matchups. We'll say it again: No matter how this season turns out, good things are happening in New York.

Chargers need a change

Justin Herbert is among the top five most gifted passers on the planet right now. He's capable of delivering on throws that most quarterbacks in the NFL shouldn't even be attempting. And yet the Chargers, for some reason, insist on running an offense that seldom takes advantage of this rare ability. It's one stick concept after another from offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. After Sunday's loss to the Seahawks, Herbert sits third in the NFL with 2,009 passing yards. That sounds great until you realize that total has come via 6.5 yards per attempt, which ranks near the bottom of the league among starting quarterbacks, tied with the likes of Daniel Jones and Davis Mills. The two-high revolution is limiting shots downfield, to be sure, but that doesn't excuse this complete absence of creativity. The Chargers are wasting one of the league's most promising quarterbacks.

Patience for McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey's first game with the 49ers didn't exactly go as planned, with the Chiefs dishing out a rude welcome in the form of a blowout defeat. But you didn't have to look all that hard to see glimpses of what the versatile running back could provide for Kyle Shanahan's offense. McCaffrey was a standout in his limited action, turning 10 touches into 62 total yards in 22 snaps. Give him a few weeks to get settled into the new system, and we'll see why the 49ers were more than happy to trade away so many draft picks in the rare midseason blockbuster. McCaffrey can take this offense to another level.

Stat of the week

The last time Tom Brady was under .500 this far into the season (7 games in) was 20 years ago, when the 2002 Patriots lost four straight to fall to 3-4. The Patriots were also 3-4 after 7 games in 2001.

Brady's never been under .500 eight or more games into an NFL season.

- Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) October 23, 2022

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