COVID in wastewater rising in Hamilton

Wastewater samples with COVID-19 detected are on the rise in Hamilton as modelling predicts a later and longer winter wave.

Over the past three weeks, the viral signal for detecting COVID-19 in wastewater samples is increasing," stated the city's latest COVID update from Oct. 19.

Scarsin Forecasting has pushed back its estimate of when hospitals will start to see increases of Hamilton hospitalizations to November from October. The peak is still predicted to be mid-to-late December. However, the modelling suggests hospitalizations will remain above current levels through to February.

The modelling comes as hospital overcrowding and staff shortages are already at such a peak in Hamilton that even McMaster Children's Hospital is seeing unprecedented backlogs for surgery and long waits in the emergency room ahead of flu season and the predicted COVID wave.

Kids younger than 20 are anticipated to account for five per cent of the predicted COVID hospitalizations.

Overall, about 591 Hamiltonians are estimated to be hospitalized with COVID between Oct. 19 to Feb. 28 compared to the last forecast of 340 from Oct. 5 to Dec. 31.

The highest number of admissions - 45 per cent - are expected to be age 60 to 79. Another 21 per cent are predicted to be age 20 to 59, while those age 80 and older are forecast to make up 29 per cent of the admissions. The modelling takes into account the current rollout of bivalent vaccines, which target Omicron as well as the original virus.

Uptake of the bivalent vaccine results in an overall reduction in hospital admissions among the older age groups where the uptake is anticipated to be greatest," states the forecast.

The city reported three more deaths among those age 70 and older from Oct. 12 to Oct. 21, bringing Hamilton's COVID fatalities to 619.

In addition, a death was reported at Dundurn Place Care Centre, where 61 have been infected at the downtown long-term care home since Oct. 3. Overall, Hamilton had 21 active outbreaks in high-risk settings as of Oct. 21.

While COVID spread remains moderate and stable overall in Hamilton, the number of tests coming back positive has risen to 17.7 per cent on Oct. 14 compared to 13.5 per cent on Sept. 30.

Joanna Frketich is a health reporter at The Spectator. jfrketich@thespec.com