NFL Week 7 betting takeaways: Where oddsmakers rate the teams
Based on team power ratings, no one had a better week than the Bills and Eagles, and neither even played. That's where we're at with the rest of the NFL. Last week, we jokingly suggested flipping the teams upside down and betting them off an inverted rating, and that likely would have been profitable again.
Fresh off getting beaten at home by the Bills, the Chiefs grabbed a stranglehold as the second-best team in the NFL. But for everyone else in the upper half of the league? Yikes.
How ratings workWe look at the betting market's assessment of each team based on the closing lines from the previous week's games and then we estimate what each club is capable of going forward. The "rating" column is an educated guess at the oddsmakers' rating to create a point spread before their most recent game. The number itself represents the percentage chance that a team beats an average opponent on a neutral field.
The range column is my evaluation of each team's potential after seeing them play this past week. Obviously, clubs don't perform at the same level every week; they play within a range. It's our job as handicappers to predict how they'll perform based on things like the situation, on-field matchups, and roster/injury issues. The earlier it is in the season, the wider a team's range may be.
Rating before Week 7 kickoff| TEAM | RATING | RANGE |
|---|---|---|
| Bills | 85 | 70-85 |
| Chiefs | 70 | 65-80 |
| Buccaneers | 69 | 50-80 |
| Eagles | 65 | 50-75 |
| Ravens | 62 | 55-70 |
| 49ers | 61 | 50-70 |
| Rams | 59 | 50-70 |
| Bengals | 59 | 50-70 |
| Cowboys | 59 | 40-70 |
| Chargers | 56 | 45-65 |
| Vikings | 56 | 45-65 |
| Patriots | 56 | 40-60 |
| Packers | 55 | 50-65 |
| Dolphins | 55 | 45-70 |
| Raiders | 54 | 40-60 |
| Jets | 48 | 30-50 |
| Titans | 47 | 40-60 |
| Browns | 46 | 40-65 |
| Cardinals | 45 | 40-60 |
| Colts | 45 | 45-65 |
| Jaguars | 44 | 30-50 |
| Falcons | 43 | 30-50 |
| Saints | 41 | 40-60 |
| Seahawks | 41 | 30-45 |
| Lions | 40 | 30-50 |
| Commanders | 39 | 30-50 |
| Steelers | 38 | 35-50 |
| Giants | 37 | 25-50 |
| Broncos | 32 | 30-60 |
| Bears | 32 | 30-45 |
| Texans | 29 | 25-40 |
| Panthers | 20 | 20-45 |
A subtitle for this column every week should just be: "Be wary of the big move." If you think a team is overrated in the chart above, ask yourself if they covered last week - they probably didn't. If you think a team is underrated above, they probably covered last week.
Rather than flip the ratings, maybe just make everyone other than the Bills, Chiefs, and Eagles a "50" while moving the bottom teams up closer to that number as well.
When it comes to the Buccaneers, they'll plummet this week. Being 13-point road favorites in Carolina was only so much about the market selling the Panthers. Tampa still had some credit in the marketplace, but not anymore. A look at Thursday's home game against the Ravens (another team headed for a downgrade) shows the Bucs as a home underdog, which would suggest a massive plummet. However, beware of the plummet.
The 49ers got healthier last week and added Christian McCaffrey, so their power rating went up, as evidenced by the line dropping against the Chiefs on Sunday. That was a mistake. They'll have to dip back below 60.
The Patriots took a surprising loss when the Bears finally figured out that Justin Fields is really good at running the ball. While that wasn't expected, had you blindly faded the big boost the Pats were getting in the market's rating of them, you'd have found a winner.
The Packers and Chargers join the Patriots on the way back to mediocrity, and had Jamaal Williams not fumbled on the 1-yard line, maybe the Cowboys would be headed that way, too, after they got a boost from Dak Prescott's return.
Buying the plummet and selling the boost isn't foolproof, though. The Jets got a huge boost after beating Green Bay, and the Broncos plummeted when Russell Wilson was ruled out. That should trigger a bet on Denver, and if I told you they'd dominate the boxscore, you'd have been delighted by getting points or a plus-priced moneyline. However, the Jets somehow pulled off a win.
The Colts and Titans come out of their matchup with issues at quarterback. Both teams will see their rating crash through their prescribed range, which usually means a betting opportunity is lurking.
How are the 6-1 Giants still rated so poorly? They opened as 3-point dogs at the Jaguars, and the line wasn't bet down. But another upset suggests that the market is wrong in judging them off of their 20th-ranked offense in yards per play and 25th-ranked defense in yards per play against. If they're underrated, that just means an opportunity to keep backing them.
The Panthers won't be rated as poorly as they were last week, but how much higher can the market boost them? Will that create a bet on the Falcons this week? Especially since Atlanta is likely to see its rating fall after getting blown out by the Bengals.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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