TNF player props: How hungry are Brady and the Bucs?

Last season, we rocked and rolled our way to the Super Bowl with music-themed Thursday Night Football player props, joyfully celebrating the start of a new NFL week. This year, we'll use an episode from "Must See TV" cornerstone "Seinfeld" each week to remind us that betting is supposed to be fun, even when an absurd series of events leads to a losing bet.

"You walk over to that table. You pick up an egg roll. You don't say anything. You eat it. You say, 'Thank you very much.' Wipe your mouth. Walk away. I give you $50." - Jerry dares a hungry Elaine to take food off a stranger's plate at a Chinese restaurant.

If it were that easy to make a few bucks, we'd do it every Thursday in this space. The penultimate episode of season two of "Seinfeld" made an impression because it was set in a single location - a restaurant - that wasn't a main setting of the show. This was unheard of in 1991, but as with most of the show's episodes, the concept was relatable to viewers.

'The Chinese Restaurant'

After over 20 years of dominance, Tom Brady has become relatable. His struggles are on full display, much like Elaine's struggles to get a table for four were. Another common point: Brady's always been hungry, much like Elaine was at the restaurant. However, unlike her unsuccessful attempt to bribe the maitre d'hotel, I trust the quarterback to get the job done, even while "struggling to compute this unprecedented turn of events."

As down as everyone is on the Buccaneers after massive upsets the last two weeks, Brady's still fifth in the league in passing yards per game among qualifying quarterbacks at 277.4. He gets to face a Ravens defense that's 20th in passing yards per attempt against. The Bucs' defense has been relatively disappointing in recent games, even giving up 6.9 yards per play to Carolina last week.

The Ravens are a popular pick to win the game, with the line swinging from Bucs -3 on the lookahead line to the Ravens as short favorites early in the week. Lamar Jackson's group tends to score early: They've recorded first-half leads in every game. This would create a negative game state for Tampa.

Jerry opens "The Chinese Restaurant" with a throwback stand-up bit about pay phones, leading to George fighting with people just to use the lobby phone. Whether Brady trails early or is able to call up Mike Evans on a first-quarter deep ball this week, look for turn-back-the-clock production from the GOAT.

Pick: Tom Brady over 281.5 passing yards (-110)

A TD that's definitely going to happen

One relatable moment from this episode is when Jerry can't place how he knows someone he runs into. We've all been there, and watching Jackson elicits a similar feeling. He's clearly talented but only has two rushing touchdowns in seven games this season and had two in 12 games last year. This means the Ravens appear content with handing the ball off near the goal line.

Gus Edwards returned last week, playing the most snaps of any Raven tailback, getting 16 carries and two touchdowns. He was +145 to score against the Browns, and he's +160 to score this week. In other words, the Ravens' goal-line runner of choice is lined at less than a 40% implied probability to score. To quote George in this episode, "What kind of a world do we live in?!"

Pick: Gus Edwards anytime touchdown (+162)

A TD that probably won't happen ... but maybe it does

If Jackson won't score near the goal line, the score might come from a big body that's on the field almost all the time. Longtime fullback Patrick Ricard caught two passes and even had a carry last week. He's scored at least once a season since entering the league in 2017 but doesn't have a touchdown yet this year.

He played his most snaps of the season last week, and his seven catches in six games put him on pace for the most he's been given the ball in his career. At 15-1 odds to score on theScore Bet, he's worth a bet every game until he gets his due in 2022.

If the team can get a goal-line play-action pass for Ricard to "momentarily extricate (himself) from the proceedings" and catch a touchdown, I'll happily "put my face in their soup and blow."

Pick: Patrick Ricard anytime touchdown (+1500)

How to bet: The first two bets should be single-unit wagers - to win a unit on minus prices and more than a unit on a plus-money bet. The last wager should be smaller, trying to win back your standard unit size.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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