NHL Thursday best bets: Stars to shine vs. Capitals

We split our best bets on Wednesday night's small slate. The Oilers came through with a win against the Blues, but unfortunately, our over fell a puck short with the Ducks.

We'll look to get back in the green Thursday night with two plays against Metro Division teams.

I thought Aaron Ekblad's injury would be crushing for a Panthers team already shallow on the blue line. It's only four games, but to this point, the Cats haven't skipped a beat.

Florida owns a 2-1-1 record without its No. 1 defenseman and has posted some truly fantastic underlying numbers. At five-on-five, the team has controlled 63.18% of the shot attempts (first), 64.96% of the expected goals (third), and outscored the opposition 11-4. Very impressive.

The Panthers' expected goal share sat at nearly 75% their last time out, but they couldn't convert that into a win against the Blackhawks. I like Florida to rectify that tonight in Philadelphia.

The Flyers are off to an encouraging 4-2-0 start, but it's all smoke and mirrors - their process won't sustainably lead to wins.

We know the Flyers aren't exactly a highly talented offensive team, but their defensive metrics are also putrid. No side has conceded five-on-five shots at a higher rate, and Philly sits bottom five in preventing expected goals. They're giving up a lot of volume - not to mention quality looks - every time out.

That'll be extremely problematic when Carter Hart regresses, which is almost guaranteed to happen. Even if you believe he is turning a corner and becoming the high-end No. 1 he was once touted to be, he won't continue stopping more than 97% of the shots he faces at five-on-five.

Last year's Vezina winner Igor Shesterkin posted a .932 save percentage in that game state last season, and even that would be an extreme ask. Suffice it to say, Hart has a pretty big fall ahead of him, and I expect it to come sooner than later.

Look for the Panthers to be on the front foot for much of this game and grind out a victory within 60 minutes.

Bet: Panthers in regulation (-135)

The Stars have dropped back-to-back games heading into this contest, but I don't think there is cause for concern. Both were road games in the latter portion of a long road trip, and both came against teams (the Senators and Bruins) that rank top five in high-danger chance share thus far.

Dallas should benefit from being rested and back on home soil. I quite like the matchup as well, as the team's numbers beneath the surface are much more encouraging than the Capitals'.

After adding Mason Marchment (six points in seven games) and promoting top-prospect Wyatt Johnston (four points), the Stars are a deeper and more threatening offensive team than a year ago. That has shown in the numbers, with Dallas ranking sixth in high-danger chance generation on a per-minute basis.

The Stars are also respectable in their own zone, which is why it's not surprising they crack the top 10 in terms of high-danger chance share.

The Capitals are lagging well behind to this point. They have taken just over 46% of the high-danger looks, slotting them behind the likes of Columbus and Chicago - that's not the kind of company you want to keep.

Washington's goaltending has been quite hit-and-miss, too, while Dallas' Jake Oettinger leads the NHL in goals saved above expected (+7.2).

I see a lot of edges for the Stars in this game. It's definitely preferable for Miro Heiskanen to play, but even if the team's without him, I think Dallas will pick up a rebound win at home.

Bet: Stars (-125)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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