NFL Week 8 player props: Tight ends up and star receivers down

Matt Ryan got blamed for the Colts' lack of offensive success versus the Titans, which only makes sense if it was his idea to call just 10 run plays for Jonathan Taylor when the back was running for 6 yards per carry in a close game. Thus, Taylor went under his rushing yards total, and subsequently, a 4-6 week pulled our year-long record down to 36-34 while we hope for more rational play-calling in Week 8.

Greg Dulcich over 32.5 receiving yards

He's not a household name, but a relatively new, big-bodied weapon for Russell Wilson is the best bet to get us doing high knees in the living room Sunday morning. Dulcich caught a 39-yard touchdown pass in his first game of the season two weeks ago, and with Wilson out last week, Brett Rypien found the rookie for six catches on nine targets. That only amounted to 51 yards, but that would be enough for the over here, and Wilson presumably might be able to put Dulcich in position further down the field.

Cole Kmet over 2.5 receptions (+110)

Staying in the tight end department, Justin Fields should find himself trailing by margin in the second half because of the Cowboys' focus on slowing down his legs. With Dallas' eyes on the backfield, Kmet should be open over the middle and a primary target for checkdowns late. In fact, he can even be found at 15-1 for six catches or more.

D'Andre Swift over 77.5 rushing + receiving yards

After a month nursing injuries, Swift came off the injury report this week, and not a moment too soon. The Lions scored just six points in their last two games, and their RB2 fumbled at the goal line last week. Expect the Lions to rely on Swift to right their ship offensively, and since he can break a big play by either rushing or receiving, we'll play the combination line.

Zach Wilson under 179.5 passing yards

The Jets have won their last four games, so Wilson's performance hasn't been heavily scrutinized, but he's gone under this number in the last two games. The Patriots also won't have to watch the backfield as closely with Breece Hall out. Considering the Jets' weakened run game, Alijah Vera-Tucker becoming the latest offensive lineman to be ruled out for the year, more movement on the receiver depth chart, and Bill Belichick scheming on the other sideline, we'll fade Wilson again.

Justin Jefferson under 90.5 receiving yards

Fading one of our favorite players doesn't sound all that fun, but Byron Murphy and the Cardinals' pass defense are crazy good against true No. 1 receivers. Check out their bona fides:

GAME	PLAYER	STATS
Week 2	Davante Adams	2 rec / 12 yds
Week 3	Cooper Kupp	4 rec / 44 yds
Week 5	A.J. Brown	3 rec / 32 yds
Week 6	DK Metcalf	2 rec / 34 yds

The Cards know Kevin O'Connell's offense well after having to face the Rams twice a season and Arizona should often be able to predict where Jefferson is headed.

Davante Adams under 83.5 receiving yards

Adams has gone over his total for three straight games, but a few things are working against him here, including a bout with the flu early this week. Darren Waller may also be back Sunday, which would mean that Derek Carr will be picking between Adams, Waller, Hunter Renfrow, and the emergent Mack Hollins when he's not leaning on Josh Jacobs against a Saints run defense that's uncharacteristically struggled this year.

Najee Harris under 48.5 rushing yards

Harris averaged more than 4 yards per carry just once this season - when he had 4.1 per tote against the Jets - and patience is wearing thin in Pittsburgh. Will the Steelers be able to hand it off at least 13 times against the Eagles? That's the minimum number of carries Harris will need to clear this total.

D.J. Moore over 59.5 receiving yards

The Falcons were familiar with Ja'Marr Chase's work going into Week 7 and they still gave up a billion yards to him and the rest of the Bengals' receivers. The banged-up Atlanta secondary might not surrender as many yards this week, but the front seven doesn't usually get much pressure either. D.J. Moore can go over this modest total in PJ Walker's third start in a row.

Kenneth Walker III over 81.5 rushing yards

Last week, we backed Walker to go over his rushing total against the Chargers because their defense gives up 5.7 yards per rush (and because Walker might be really awesome). One team is tied with Los Angeles for league-worst in that category: the New York Giants. You know what to do.

Sam Ehlinger over 25.5 rushing yards

Ehlinger runs the football. It's what he did at Texas, and it's part of what the second-year quarterback brings to the Colts' offense that Ryan doesn't. As a bonus, opponents will still be more concerned about Taylor, so whether it's by design or it's because he panics in the pocket, Ehlinger should be on the move often.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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