MNF best bets: Can the Browns haunt the Bengals on Halloween night?

Each Monday we'll finish off the week that was in the NFL with a look at value spots in the remaining game - under one condition: you promise not to chase. Whether Sunday provided a boost to the accounts or left a little to be desired, Monday Night Football provides an opportunity to show responsibility in your betting, as there will always be another wild Sunday to get lost in.

Like the beginning of a good scary movie, the Bengals were riding high after a blowout win at home over the Falcons, ready for the quick, innocent trip up to Cleveland for a prime-time interstate showdown. Then a nightmare in the form of Ja'Marr Chase's hip came to life. The Browns are also haunted by bad news, some brought on by themselves. With their own plethora of injuries, who isn't playing will inform our bets for Monday night.

With Chase missing the first game of his career, will Joe Burrow and the Bengals' offense survive the night? Burrow has always been able to find his former LSU teammate when the going gets tough, but he'll have to do without him against Cleveland's pass-rushers. Jadeveon Clowney and Myles Garrett should terrorize an offensive line that's giving up the seventh-highest sack percentage.

Defensively, neither team defends the rush well, but it's Cleveland's trick-or-treat duo of Nick Chubb (2.8 yards after contact) and Kareem Hunt (1.9 YAC) that's better adept at exploiting holes. Thirty of the pair's 192 combined carries (15.6%) have gone for 10-plus yards. That threat has struck enough fear in defenses to create occasional big plays for quarterback Jacoby Brissett. By comparison, just seven of Joe Mixon's 121 carries have been that explosive.

Using previous point spreads, and applying each team's market rating to this game, either the Bengals got a sizeable upgrade for capitalizing on the Falcons' secondary injuries or the Browns got downgraded despite covering in Baltimore last week. Neither reason makes particular sense, especially given Chase's ailment. So, there's value on the home underdog, particularly when getting the key number of +3.

By the time you're reading this, the rain should've already started on the shores of Lake Erie, and it's forecasted to continue into kickoff. Spooky conditions and an undaunted "Dawg Pound" Halloween crowd might lead to a strip sack or an interception that we wouldn't normally see from the usually confident Burrow. Mix in the Browns' running game, and this one has a suspenseful ending.

Pick: Browns +3.5

Tee Higgins over 5.5 receptions

The Browns' pass defense has been a "Rocky Horror Picture Show" but with less camp. Cleveland's giving up 7.1 yards per pass attempt this season and getting victimized by the likes of Joe Flacco and Bailey Zappe. Denzel Ward is out, while Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Greedy Williams, and Greg Newsome are questionable, so there's no reason the Bengals shouldn't keep throwing against a skeleton crew, even without Chase.

Tee Higgins is a pretty good substitute as a top target, but his reception total hasn't increased from 5.5. Chase's 10 targets per game are seemingly up for grabs against a suspect pass defense without a shutdown corner, so look for Burrow to take numerous stabs toward Higgins.

Harrison Bryant anytime touchdown (+320)

David Njoku had been coming into his own, but he'll now be out for a few weeks with his foot in a walking boot. His absence leaves Harrison Bryant as the lone pass-catching tight end plying his craft. Even though this is the shortest price we've seen all year for a Bryant touchdown, this is more about him taking Njoku's role against an injury-riddled Bengals secondary that'll have its eyes focused on the Browns' backfield.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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