TNF player props: What to do with an ugly 'dog in Eagles-Texans

Last season, we rocked and rolled our way to the Super Bowl with music-themed Thursday Night Football player props, joyfully celebrating the start of a new NFL week. This year, we'll use an episode from "Must See TV" cornerstone "Seinfeld" each week to remind us that betting is supposed to be fun, even when an absurd series of events leads to a losing bet.

"It's supposed to be really bad, really bad ... I almost feel like I've seen it already and walked out on it." - Jerry to Elaine about the movie he was forced to go see a second time without her knowing he's seen it.

In Season 3, Episode 4 of "Seinfeld," Jerry gets stuck watching the nastiest dog. Football fans can likely relate, given they may walk out on this one early - although most of us would still watch the NFL even if our hair was on fire. It's "Prognosis Negative" for the Texans on Thursday Night Football. With a rare 14-point road favorite, the Eagles are expected to run around, over, and through Houston.

'The Dog'

Jerry opens the episode in typical fashion, with a stand-up joke about pilots telling the passengers they'll make up time in the air. Thirty years later, anytime you hear that type of announcement, it's still a tried and true joke: "If you can go faster, why don't you just go as fast as you can all the time?"

Last week, the Titans decided the best way to reach their destination would be to hand the ball off 45 times against the Texans, racking up 314 yards on the ground. A week earlier, Josh Jacobs gashed them for 143 yards on 20 carries. With Houston owning the second-worst run defense in the league, you wonder why any team wouldn't just run the ball down the field if you could do so that easily all the time. Like Kramer's unseen girlfriend Ellen, Houston's defensive personality is a "potential science exhibit."

The Eagles don't need an invitation to run the football, and on a short week, I'll bet they do so with multiple rushers to land this victory easily. The prop market is fully aware of this, though, moving Miles Sanders' rushing yards total up 12.5% - 9.5 yards higher than it's ever been.

Instead, we'll bet what seems like a fade of Jalen Hurts, but it's actually a bet backing Philadelphia to find offensive success through rushing and chunk plays in the passing game. Hurts has cleared 28.5 pass attempts just once in the Eagles' last four games, and we don't expect he'll need to throw much in this one.

Pick: Jalen Hurts under 28.5 pass attempts (-130)

A TD that's definitely going to happen

George and Elaine are used to having Jerry around when they hang out, effectively feeling like "friends-in-law." With such an obvious angle - Philly dominating Houston on the ground - we'll add related "bets-in-law."

Unless the Texans have been drinking Morning Thunder - the tea Jerry doesn't know has caffeine in it - Sanders will get more than a few opportunities at the goal line and likely won't be stopped. He'll exclaim, "I feel great!" without knowing why it was so easy to find the end zone.

The last few weeks, these bets have felt the way Jerry looks when he's throwing up - winners are seemingly coming at any moment, only to, well ... not. However, after going touchdown-less last season, Sanders has scored in four of the seven games played, meaning there's more than a 50/50 chance he'll do so Thursday.

Pick: Miles Sanders anytime touchdown (+100)

A TD that probably won't happen ... but maybe it does

"Prediction: I never see you or him again for the rest of my life." Jerry's classic line applies to the unlikeable characters on the worst football team in the NFL and its offense, so betting any of the Texans to score a touchdown feels like a long shot, and I would rather dog-sit Farfel than rely on a specific Houston player to score at the available prices.

In fact, Kramer might look at the Texans and say, "You contribute nothing to society. You're just taking up space. How could I bet on someone like you?! I couldn't respect myself!" Meanwhile, all the obvious picks on the Eagles are priced as such. Except for Boston Scott.

Scott had eight touchdowns in 10 games played last season but hasn't scored since the first game of this campaign. He's still good for 10-15 snaps per game, but he may get a few more if this contest gets out of hand by the second half. Scott's a better second option than "Ponce de Leon," and he, too, could take advantage of Houston's shoddy defense.

Pick: Boston Scott anytime touchdown (+475)

How to bet: The first two bets should be single-unit wagers to win a unit on minus prices and more than a unit on a plus-money bet. The last wager should be smaller, trying to win back your standard unit size.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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