NFL Week 9 player props: Reading the game script

In betting player props, you have to avoid injuries on over bets and a fluky explosive play on unders. You can also fade Zach Wilson's success, be correct when he plays poorly - throwing three interceptions and completing less than half his passes - but still lose because he keeps throwing while trailing, going over his yardage total. Quarterbacks will keep slinging it in a negative game state, but how can we accurately predict that? The Jets were one roughing the passer penalty away from taking a two-score lead, and Wilson would have played it more conservatively from there. Alas, we're back to 40-40 through eight weeks as we look to match game states with player usage for Week 9.

Sam Ehlinger longest rush over 12.5 yards

Want to be annoyed by something? Ehlinger didn't hit the over for us last week, and oddsmakers still adjusted his rushing yards total from 25.5 to 29.5! We were probably onto something with that bet, as he had a long run called back due to a hold. This week we'll ask him to get loose for one good gain against the Patriots.

Robert Tonyan over 30.5 receiving yards

Last time we turned to "Big Bob" Tonyan, he racked up 10 catches on 12 targets. Even with less usage in the past two weeks, he still cleared this total. Now Aaron Rodgers goes from throwing through the pressure brought by the Commanders' and Bills' fronts to the cozy setup of the Lions' defense in the dome. Tonyan should continue to get looks and do a lot with them.

Gabriel Davis over 53.5 receiving yards

At the risk of over-simplifying things, the Bills won 45-17 at the Jets last year, with Stefon Diggs catching eight passes for 162 yards. That might have been enough to force New York to draft Sauce Gardner. Assuming the rookie corner gets his first look at Diggs, that'll garner Gabriel Davis a few extra targets. The Jets did succeed at keeping Josh Allen in the pocket last year, which just means more throws down the field to Buffalo's receivers.

Joe Mixon under 68.5 rushing yards

At this point, Mixon's total even being this high has to be due to either name reputation or the assumption of a positive game state that a touchdown-plus favorite suggests. However, our moneyline upset of the week predicts this won't be a piece of cake for the Bengals. We have to assume the Panthers' solid run defense (4.2 yards per carry against) will be the next team to hold Mixon near his season average of just 3.3 yards per carry.

Antonio Gibson over 21.5 receiving yards

There's been a shift in running back roles for Washington. Brian Robinson takes the early-down carries, while Antonio Gibson and JD McKissic split the backup/third-down snaps. McKissic is out this week, and since Robinson especially hasn't shown comfort in that role with just two catches in four games, that means more looks in the passing game for Gibson - a former college receiver.

Khalil Herbert over 37.5 rushing yards

David Montgomery might get the nominal honor of starting this game, but he's not the best running back on the Bears, and they might only be figuring that out now. Herbert edged Montgomery by a carry in Dallas and almost doubled his production. With winds gusting in Soldier Field, Herbert should get opportunities to clear a modest total.

Justin Herbert over 280.5 passing yards

It's hard to know who will catch passes from Herbert, but given what a mess the Falcons' secondary is right now and the likelihood Atlanta moves the ball on the ground against the Chargers' defense, it has to be somebody. Missing two starting receivers isn't ideal on the surface, but it also may be what's depressing this line, and it's not like Herbert has had Keenan Allen much this year, anyway.

Davante Adams over 75.5 receiving yards

Speaking of depressed totals, Adams' number might be this low because he had three yards last week. Having dealt with the flu before the game in New Orleans, it seems unfair that cashing an under that easily only counts for one unit in the account. Adams should be back to his usual self, though, with extra motivation to have a big game following a shutout loss.

Tyler Lockett under 5.5 receptions

The Cardinals and Seahawks met in Seattle three weeks ago, and while the scoreboard looked like a comfy win for the home side, the offense only tallied 160 yards passing. Meanwhile, the team saw the worst stats of the season from both DK Metcalf and Lockett, who's also had five catches or less in three of his last four games. Seattle knows they can rely on Kenneth Walker and Noah Fant - most teams hurt Arizona with the tight end.

Rachaad White over 17.5 receiving yards

A week and a half is an eternity for NFL coaching staffs. Leonard Fournette was targeted nine times in the Rams-Bucs playoff matchup last season, but Tampa has shown signs that it wants to deploy the quicker White. Look for him earlier, and more often, in the passing game to keep Aaron Donald and company on their heels.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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