MNF best bets: Can Saints march out with win over Ravens?

Each Monday we'll finish off the week that was in the NFL with a look at value spots in the remaining game - under one condition: You promise not to chase. Whether Sunday provided a boost to the accounts or left a little to be desired, Monday Night Football provides an opportunity to show responsibility in your betting, as there will always be another wild Sunday to get lost in.

We got into the spirit of Halloween last week to handicap the capper on Week 8, but every prime-time game in New Orleans sees its own share of costumes, tricks, and treats. That will be the challenge for the Ravens, who in recent years, haven't found a ton of success going on the road to some of the NFL's delightfully weird destinations at night. The Saints, meanwhile, should have the home crowd still believing in their chances of winning the NFC South.

Prior to last week's win in tepid Tampa Bay, the Ravens' recent prime-time road trips had included Miami and Las Vegas in 2021, along with New England, Cleveland, and Buffalo in 2020. They lost four of the five games in those stadiums, which are on the high end of home-field advantage, and needed a miracle to cover the one victory in Cleveland. It's just not a situation that bodes well for Lamar Jackson.

To make matters worse, Jackson will be without his favorite pass-catching target in Mark Andrews along with Rashod Bateman, leaving a corps of Devin Duvernay, James Proche, and Demarcus Robinson, the latter of whom is also questionable. Can he trust those players to be where they need to be, when they need to be there, in a raucous Superdome?

The Ravens do lead the league in yards per carry - something that happens when you have a player like Jackson. However, JK Dobbins is out, and Gus Edwards may be as well, leaving Baltimore in a similar situation to last year when its traditional running game faltered.

New Orleans has its own injury issues but has gotten used to players funneling in and out of the lineup. As long as the Saints have Alvin Kamara to lean on for explosive plays, and Taysom Hill available during the high-leverage moments, they can continue to produce close to their average of 6 yards per play, which is tied for fifth in the NFL.

The Ravens acquired Roquan Smith from the Bears in hopes of improving their defense, which is giving up 5.7 yards per play after finishing last in that category in 2021. However, he may need more than just a few days with hi new club to make the necessary impact.

Baltimore has built its 5-3 record on good first halves and either hanging on for victory or, in its three losses, blowing the lead. The Superdome, meanwhile, should be rocking. This game could continue the MNF betting trend of home underdogs being successful in the first half. If the Ravens can't generate an early lead, they might find themselves climbing an insurmountable hill against the Saints, who are as confident as they've been all season. This line has plummeted from Ravens -3.5 on open to under a field goal, and I agree with that move.

Pick: Saints moneyline (+105)

Alvin Kamara over 4.5 receptions (-125)

The Ravens give up the fourth-most receptions and seventh-most yards to opposing running backs. Meanwhile, Kamara has 30 receptions on 34 targets in his four games since returning from injury. That coincided with Andy Dalton taking over at quarterback. While his predecessor, Jameis Winston, loved looking deep first, Dalton remains the starter because he's willing to check it down. With Mark Ingram out, that might mean an extra catch or two for Kamara.

Josh Oliver anytime touchdown (+425)

With Andrews out, Isaiah Likely will, ahem, likely be one of Jackson's primary targets, as he stepped in to catch six passes in Tampa Bay. Andrews was often lined in the mid-40s for his yardage total, so if Likely's prop totals pop shy of that range before kickoff, it's worth playing the over. However, Josh Oliver saw his most snaps of the season last week, and if he's the nominal TE2, this is a good price to take a half-unit shot on.

Rashid Shaheed anytime touchdown (+500)

You could put that other half-unit on Shaheed who's seen his involvement in the offense increase over his three games. The rookie has elite speed, scoring on a run play in his debut, and will assuredly get a look deep against the Ravens' secondary, which has had issues with speedsters getting in behind.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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