NHL weekly betting guide: True moneylines for every game
We use this space each week to discuss the valuation of teams to help us figure out what teams are incorrectly priced on a minute-by-minute basis.
However, the basis for the change in those valuations - a team's on-ice metrics through just one-eighth of the season - can illuminate value in the futures markets as well.
The Sabres and Kraken are still listed at 100-1 to win the Stanley Cup. Sure, maybe neither team is ready to go the way, and they certainly don't have the brand-name reputation, but through an admittedly small sample size, they've played as well as those who do, and it would be nice to have a 100-1 ticket on any team that makes the Stanley Cup Playoffs - something doable for both.
The following shows the expected goal share at even strength - a metric that tells you how a team is playing relative to their competition - and high-danger goal share - a metric that shows how well a team converts its best chances combined with how good its goaltenders are at stopping them.
| TEAM | XG% (5-on-5) | HDG % (5-on-5) |
|---|---|---|
| Kraken | 53% | 59% |
| Sabres | 50% | 57% |
| Maple Leafs | 53% | 54% |
| Avalanche | 46% | 53% |
The Maple Leafs are still 10-1 to win the Stanley Cup, and the Avalanche, naturally, remain the favorites. However, keep an eye on where the Kraken and Sabres' odds go relative to the rest of the league, and you'll see how teams can move up or down in value even in long-term betting markets. This should provide a hint about how they're being viewed on a game-to-game basis as well.
The recipeWe started the campaign using regular-season point totals as a baseline for rating teams since it's still the best measurement we have. Throughout the season, we'll adjust club ratings using on-ice metrics to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which various outliers like special teams results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events - such as three-on-three overtime and the shootout - can skew.
The cheat sheetThere are no bad bets at the right price. But how do we know what a good price is?
The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for a team on the second leg of a back-to-back without travel. When it comes to injured players, I do my best to estimate the impact on their team's win probability.
When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's also a possibility that a moneyline moves into a betable range at some point between market open and puck drop.
| DATE | GAME | TRUE ML | PRICE TO BET |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov. 7 | CGY@NYI | -103/+103 | CGY +107/NYI +114 |
| STL@BOS | +137/-137 | STL +162/BOS -132 | |
| EDM@WSH | -107/+107 | EDM +103/WSH +118 | |
| Nov. 8 | VAN@OTT | +109/-109 | VAN +120/OTT +102 |
| VGK@TOR | +139/-139 | VGK +164/TOR -133 | |
| CGY@NJD | +140/-140 | CGY +165/NJD -134 | |
| NYI@NYR | +151/-151 | NYI +179/NYR -145 | |
| ARI@BUF | +178/-178 | ARI +213/BUF -171 | |
| STL@PHI | -107/+107 | STL +103/PHI +118 | |
| MTL@DET | +155/-155 | MTL +184/DET -149 | |
| EDM@TB | +145/-145 | EDM +172/TB -139 | |
| DAL@WPG | +106/-106 | DAL +117/WPG +105 | |
| NSH@SEA | -107/+107 | NSH +104/SEA +118 | |
| MIN@LAK | +116/-116 | MIN +137/LAK -112 | |
| Nov. 9 | CAR@FLA | -105/+105 | CAR +105/FLA +116 |
| VAN@MTL | -107/+107 | VAN +104/MTL +118 | |
| PIT@WSH | -104/+104 | PIT +106/WSH +115 | |
| MIN@ANA | -120/+120 | MIN -115/ANA +141 | |
| Nov. 10 | CGY@BOS | +112/-112 | CGY +132/BOS -108 |
| PHI@CBJ | +129/-129 | PHI +152/CBJ -124 | |
| EDM@CAR | +106/-106 | EDM +117/CAR +104 | |
| VGK@BUF | -125/+125 | VGK -120/BUF +147 | |
| OTT@NJD | +154/-154 | OTT +183/NJD -148 | |
| NYR@DET | -116/+116 | NYR -112/DET +137 | |
| ARI@NYI | +237/-237 | ARI +289/NYI -226 | |
| SJS@STL | +178/-178 | SJS +212/STL -170 | |
| NSH@COL | +137/-137 | NSH +161/COL -131 | |
| CHI@LAK | +236/-236 | CHI +288/LAK -225 | |
| Nov. 11 | PIT@TOR | +135/-135 | PIT +159/TOR -129 |
| TB@WSH | -108/+108 | TB +102/WSH +120 | |
| SJS@DAL | +219/-219 | SJS +266/DAL -209 | |
| MIN@SEA | -111/+111 | MIN -107/SEA +131 | |
| Nov. 12 | OTT@PHI | -118/+118 | OTT -114/PHI +139 |
| EDM@FLA | +105/-105 | EDM +116/FLA +106 | |
| ARI@NJD | +289/-289 | ARI +361/NJD -275 | |
| VAN@TOR | +145/-145 | VAN +171/TOR -139 | |
| BOS@BUF | -127/+127 | BOS -122/BUF +149 | |
| PIT@MTL | -129/+129 | PIT -124/MTL +152 | |
| CBJ@NYI | +167/-167 | CBJ +199/NYI -160 | |
| NYR@NSH | +110/-110 | NYR +121/NSH +101 | |
| CAR@COL | +108/-108 | CAR +120/COL +102 | |
| WPG@CGY | +163/-163 | WPG +193/CGY -156 | |
| CHI@ANA | +144/-144 | CHI +170/ANA -138 | |
| STL@VGK | +135/-135 | STL +159/VGK -130 | |
| DET@LAK | +156/-156 | DET +185/LAK -150 | |
| Nov. 13 | DAL@PHI | -140/+140 | DAL -135/PHI +166 |
| VAN@BOS | +140/-140 | VAN +166/BOS -135 | |
| SJS@MIN | +200/-200 | SJS +241/MIN -192 | |
| ARI@NYR | +277/-277 | ARI +343/NYR -263 | |
| WSH@TB | +150/-150 | WSH +177/TB -144 | |
| WPG@SEA | +138/-138 | WPG +163/SEA -132 |
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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