Poland explosion unlikely to spark escalation – but risks of Nato-Russia clash are real

Incident in which two people died probably falls short of threshold needed to prompt collective Nato action against Russia

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If it was a Russian missile that struck a Polish village on Tuesday, killing two people, it would be the first time a Russian weapon has ever come down on Nato territory.

The Soviet Union and the US managed to get through the whole cold war without making such a mistake, because Washington and Moscow were well aware of the risks of going to war by accident or miscalculation.