Russia’s relentless strikes may escalate the war – but Kherson shows Ukraine is winning | Orysia Lutsevych

Victory in the south will give Ukrainians strength, just as the explosion in Poland highlights the risks involved in this conflict

The longer this war lasts, the higher the chances that it will spill over into Nato territory. Last night's missile explosions that reportedly killed two people in the Polish village of Przewodow, 20km from the border with Ukraine, are testimony to a dangerous trend of miscalculation that could lead to escalation. As long as Russia continues its desperate tactic of missile barrages against civilian infrastructure, this risk is high.

But while attention is focused on Russia's indiscriminate long-range strikes, and the emerging G20 and Nato reactions, Moscow's position on the ground is weaker than it has been in months. The loss of Kherson last week was a major blow - to the point that even senior Russian commanders have acknowledged setbacks for the first time.

Orysia Lutsevych is the head of Ukraine Forum at Chatham House