MNF best bets: The 49ers and Cardinals meet up in Mexico City

Each Monday, we'll finish off the week that was in the NFL with a look at value spots in the remaining game - under one condition: You promise not to chase. Whether Sunday provided a boost to the accounts or left a little to be desired, Monday Night Football provides an opportunity to show responsibility in your betting, as there will always be another wild Sunday to get lost in.

It's the most anticipated event in Mexico until my wedding there in March, but - unlike with the bride - no one can be totally sure that one of the focal points will be there. After a quick perusal of the standings in the NFC West, this looks like a pivotal battle between the 5-4 49ers and 4-6 Cardinals, but it doesn't feel like an evenly-matched game, does it? The betting market certainly doesn't think so, as San Francisco has toggled between -8 and 9-point favorites throughout the week despite the neutral setting in Mexico City.

Star quarterback Kyler Murray's status remains in question after he missed last week's win over the Rams with a hamstring injury. What's concerning for Murray is that his injury status does not impact whether there's a point spread available to bet on in this game. That this matchup is on the board suggests that the oddsmakers really don't see much difference between Murray and veteran backup Colt McCoy.

The indifference in Arizona's rating, regardless of quarterback, likely has to do with the line sitting between -7 and -10. Murray's presence shouldn't be enough to move it to -7, while -10 would be too high with a fully capable McCoy, so why not put the line in between and let bettors have at it?

A slowed Murray, with his one defining characteristic somewhat neutralized, probably isn't any better than McCoy - who arguably played his best game in years last season in San Francisco.

The oft-injured 49ers are apparently getting healthier by the day. They have an abundance of defensive depth, although it has been tested, and they are capable of blowing out the Cardinals. But that's always been a troublesome ask for Kyle Shanahan's team as a favorite - something best avoided since he's 8-18-1 in that situation at home, and he's getting no discount in this neutral site game.

Pick: Wait and bet Cardinals at +10 if McCoy starts

James Conner under 49.5 rushing yards

The 49ers' run defense continues to be as good as last year, leading the NFL in opponents' yards per carry with 3.4. Murray actually leads the Cardinals in rushing, with James Conner averaging just 3.8 yards per carry. Conner isn't an explosive runner either, with a season-long rush of 17 yards. That likely won't be topped on Monday night, given San Francisco's full complement of speedy tackle-hungry linebackers.

Eno Benjamin got released, Darrel Williams is on injured reserve, and Arizona seems to have little use for Keaontay Ingram, so Conner should get all the volume, having been on the field for 96% of snaps last week, but that's why this yardage total is five yards clear of his 2022 season average. With less than four yards per carry in his time as a Cardinal and probably a rush-negative game script, Conner won't likely get to 50 yards on the ground.

George Kittle over 41.5 receiving yards

Tight ends against the Cardinals are prop betting and fantasy gold in recent history. Arizona gives up both the most receptions and yards to opposing tight ends at 7.5 catches and 77.8 yards per game, respectively. While George Kittle has taken something of a backseat to the Niners' many weapons, this is a prime spot for Shanahan to set Jimmy Garoppolo up for a big play or two to Kittle.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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