NFL Week 14 player props: Who's able to finish the season strong?

The player props are supposed to be supplemental bets where we zero in on the main element of your handicap for each game. So, it was a little strange that we hit eight out of our 10 player props in Week 13 on a lackluster Sunday against the spread.

Mark Andrews over 4.5 receptions

In the first nine contests of 2021, Mark Andrews received nine-plus targets from Lamar Jackson just twice and made five catches just twice. In the eight games after Jackson was hurt, the star tight end had nine-plus targets in six of seven contests. Tyler Huntley started all but one of those games. When Jackson went out of the game with the Broncos last week, head coach John Harbaugh said the Ravens would tailor the offense to Huntley's strengths, which will likely mean an even bigger reliance on Andrews.

Deshaun Watson under 222.5 passing yards

Let's take our profits from fading Watson last week and roll them over to this week. The Texans quarterback will be better than 12 of 22 for 131 yards and an interception, but don't expect the Browns to have him throw much more in his second game. Instead, they'll continue to use the ground game, especially with Amari Cooper showing up on the injury report mid-week.

D'Andre Swift over 63.5 rushing + receiving yards

Speaking of last week's success, we pinpointed Swift for an uptick in usage from his 8-10 touches after he was removed from the injury report. Swift had 18 against the Jaguars and gained 111 yards. We'll go back to the well here, too.

Ezekiel Elliott under 66.5 rushing yards

Although the Texans continue to find ways to lose, their defense has improved statistically over the last four games, especially against the run. However, they're vulnerable against the pass without Derek Stingley. The 17-point spread suggests the Cowboys should win comfortably. If they do, it's because they score off turnovers, explosive plays in the passing game, or Tony Pollard runs. There's likely no need to grind Ezekiel Elliott on the ground, especially late.

Derrick Henry over 13.5 receiving yards

The Jaguars give up the third-most receptions (6.25) and second-most receiving yards (47.8) to opposing running backs. The Titans have made a conscious effort to get Derrick Henry the ball in space. He has 27 targets in Ryan Tannehill's last eight starts, going over this number six times.

Garrett Wilson over 62.5 receiving yards

The Jets will throw early and often again this week. While it might not work as well for Mike White versus Buffalo as it did against the poor defenses of Chicago and Minnesota, Garrett Wilson will continue to get a ton of targets. He had 15 balls thrown his way last week and caught eight for 92 yards in his previous meeting against a very good Bills unit.

Jalen Hurts over 279.5 passing + rushing yards

Jalen Hurts is 4-6 in this market this season, but he was four yards away in one game and six yards away in another. Hurts will beat you with a big game through the air or on the ground, so why try to pick one. When he doesn't, it's because the opposing offense grinds down the game clock. The Giants won't have long drives, and Hurts should have ample opportunity to rack up yardage with his arm and his legs.

Greg Dulcich over 40.5 receiving yards

I can't tell you why the Broncos went away from their rookie tight end after he showed he was a legitimate weapon upon his first action midway through the season, but Russell Wilson targeted Greg Dulcich eight times in Baltimore last week. With Courtland Sutton out, Dulcich is the best option for Wilson in a game where he'll likely have to gain first downs through the air.

D'Onta Foreman over 63.5 rushing yards

The Panthers want to run the football almost exclusively, and they want to do it with D'Onta Foreman. He showed up on the injury report early this week but was deemed available Friday against the Seahawks' 28th-ranked run defense by yards per carry. You can count on one hand the number of tailbacks with four 100-plus-yard games in their last six contests. Foreman is one of them.

George Kittle over 30.5 receiving yards

The 49ers have spent the week determining what plays Brock Purdy is most comfortable with. At Iowa State, Purdy's favorite target was All-American tight end Charlie Kolar. One of Purdy's best throws in relief of Jimmy Garoppolo last week went to George Kittle. Look for more of those connections over the middle against Tampa Bay's weakened safety depth.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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