Key takeaways and analysis from Week 14 in the NFL

Sunday Rundown recaps the most important developments from the day's action and examines their significance moving forward.

Lions heating up NurPhoto / NurPhoto / Getty

The 5-7 Lions' status as favorites over the 10-2 Vikings could have, and perhaps should have, been the ultimate bulletin board material for Minnesota. Maybe it was. But it didn't matter.

Detroit cruised to a 34-23 win with 464 yards of offense, which should clear up any confusion about the betting line heading into this week. The Lions deserved that kind of faith - they're just a better football team.

We saw flashes of elite play from Detroit's offense early in the season, with the unit averaging 35 points per game in the opening month, but the defense was such a mess that the team only produced a 1-3 record. When injuries struck and the offense hit a wall in the back-to-back blowout losses that followed, it seemed like the Lions would have to wait until next year to take the next step.

Dan Campbell and Co. had other plans. The resurgence started with a Week 8 game against the Dolphins. That ended in another defeat, dropping the Lions to 1-6, but their ability to hang with a juggernaut Miami offense in the 31-27 contest was evidently a sign of things to come.

Detroit has since won five of its last six games, with the only loss being a 28-25 defeat at the hands of the Super Bowl-contending Bills on Thanksgiving Day. The offense, of course, has been the key to it all, with an incredibly designed scheme getting the most out of an outstanding group of playmakers and one of the league's premier offensive lines. And now they get the healthy return of explosive first-round rookie Jameson Williams, who hauled in a 41-yard touchdown on his first NFL catch to open the scoring.

Sunday headlines about the Lions seeing Jared Goff as a long-term quarterback may have given you some pause, but the veteran signal-caller is playing the best football of his career as Detroit's point man. Goff was near-perfect against the Vikings, throwing for 330 yards and three touchdowns and posting his fifth straight game without an interception.

With the defense having taken some subtle steps in the right direction of late - making timely plays to get off the field, as we saw with two key turnovers against the Vikings - the formula is far more conducive to favorable results. They're only 6-7, but nobody is as hot as the Lions right now.

Chasing down the Vikings for the NFC North title would be next to impossible, as it'd not only require a perfect finish from Detroit, but also an 0-4 stretch run from Minnesota. A wild-card spot is very much on the table, though. The Lions will enter the last four games just one win behind the Commanders, Giants, and Seahawks in the race for the sixth and seventh seeds in the NFC playoff picture.

If the Lions can sneak into the playoffs as the final wild-card team, they'll draw the No. 2 seed. At this point, that could easily end up being the Vikings. And the way Minnesota's defense is playing, you can bet it wants nothing to do with this Lions offense.

Herbert outshines Tua Ronald Martinez / Getty Images Sport / Getty

The football world tends to do this weird thing with quarterbacks, acting like they're the only person with any say in whether their team wins. And when #QBWinz somehow seeps into every mainstream conversation about the position, we treat things like Sunday night's matchup of top 2020 draft picks as though there's even a debate to be had.

To be clear, Tua Tagovailoa has been incredible all year. His growth into a quality NFL starter has been a joy to watch, and he's been masterful at the controls of Mike McDaniel's offense. Limitations in natural arm talent just don't matter as much when you play with his level of anticipation and precision in attacking zones over the middle of the field.

But Justin Herbert is on another level. The Chargers quarterback was far and away the best player on the field Sunday night against Tua's Dolphins. He made one ridiculous throw after another in leading his team to a much-needed win, connecting on a career-high 39 of 51 passes for 367 yards and one touchdown.

Meanwhile, Tagovailoa struggled with the tight windows created by the Chargers' press man coverage, completing just 10 of 28 passes for 145 yards and a score. Tyreek Hill being in and out of the game due to an ankle issue was also a factor, but that merely demonstrated how invaluable the superstar receiver is to Tua and the Dolphins' offense. He's their MVP.

But Los Angeles barely escaped with a one-score victory despite limiting a high-powered Dolphins passing game and Herbert playing out of his mind. It's just another example of how much meat this team leaves on the bone. Frankly, it's become something of a yearly ritual.

The Chargers should be in the playoffs at season's end. If Joey Bosa and Rashawn Slater return for the stretch run, L.A. could even make some noise. But until it starts running an offense designed to take advantage of what its all-world quarterback can do - which seems unlikely to ever happen with this offensive coaching staff - we're going to be left wanting more.

In the meantime, Herbert's rare abilities will likely be saved for the times when the Chargers don't have any choice but to attack downfield. Just don't let stats, win/losses, and Los Angeles' general incompetence fool you into thinking he isn't one of the top three quarterbacks in the game right now.

The AFC West rivalry between Herbert and Patrick Mahomes will be one of the best things this sport has to offer for a long time to come.

Mr. Irrelevant no more Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

Last week, when the 49ers lost Jimmy Garoppolo to injury, I suggested that we'd soon find out just how 2000 Ravens-like this 49ers defense could be in pursuit of a Super Bowl. With sincere apologies to Brock Purdy, I'm here to walk back that notion.

While the defense remains the team's heart and soul and the key to matching up with the tough competition in this year's NFC playoffs, the idea that the offense would fall off with a seventh-round rookie under center looks to have been a tad presumptuous.

Purdy got his first start Sunday against the Buccaneers, and it couldn't have gone much better. The raw statistical production - completions on 16 of 21 passes for 185 yards and two touchdowns - was nothing spectacular, but that doesn't even begin to tell the story of his steady presence. Thriving under pressure, extending plays, and attacking downfield to positive results, he looked more like a seasoned veteran.

That the 49ers aren't hiding Purdy within the scheme, as you might expect with an inexperienced rookie forced into action, demonstrates the trust he's earned from Kyle Shanahan. Not only does he have the offense running as it would have with Garoppolo, but there may even be reason to believe that his skill set opens up further possibilities.

Brock Purdy now has as many deep TD passes outside the numbers today (2) as Jimmy G has over the last three seasons.https://t.co/V5s23hy2LT

- Keegan Abdoo (@KeeganAbdoo) December 11, 2022

With the blowout win, Purdy became the first quarterback to beat Tom Brady in his debut as an NFL starter. The 35-point effort marks the second-highest scoring output against the Bucs' defense this season, with only Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense faring better.

Can defenses adjust and start to make things more difficult on a rookie quarterback? Of course. But if Purdy can continue at this level - both running Shanahan's system as it's designed and making a few plays outside of structure - there's no reason that the ceiling on the 49ers' season can't remain as high as it's been all along.

Mr. Irrelevant is quickly becoming anything but.

Brady hitting decline? Cooper Neill / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Brady wasn't the issue early on. The Bucs' offense has been a mess from the jump, but it was clear that, at least initially, the supporting cast and the system itself were letting him down.

Three months in, it's tough to confidently say that holds true. Brady may not be the problem, but he's certainly not helping - at least not to the level we've come to expect. There are enough off-target throws, especially when pushing the ball downfield, to make you wonder whether the end is near.

Strange as it may be to debate such a topic just one week after Brady dragged the Bucs to a miracle comeback win over the Saints, it's important to remember that they were only in that position because the offense had mustered all of three points until the final minutes of the fourth quarter. Sunday's game against the 49ers was much of the same, except without even the faintest hope of a comeback. Brady and the Bucs were battered from start to finish, with the only score coming when Russell Gage hauled in Chris Godwin's drop for a touchdown.

Now, we've been through this before with Brady. He's famously been labeled "washed" multiple times only to shut everyone up by adding to his obscene collection of rings. There's never been anyone like him.

Maybe the chaos in the Bucs' offense is just wearing Brady down this year. Despite the patchwork offensive line, he isn't getting hit at a rate any higher than the past few seasons. But is that because he's speeding up his process to avoid contact? That might explain some of his uncharacteristic misses. It wouldn't be the most appalling development for a 45-year-old quarterback to attempt to minimize the number of hits he takes.

That's probably the other factor here. He's 45! It was only a matter of time (in his case, far more than others) before Brady's play started to drop off. This could just be the inevitable, albeit later than expected, decline.

Whatever the case may be, he's no longer elevating his team in the way he has for the better part of his Hall of Fame career. The Bucs are bad, and there's really no reason to think they're going to magically figure it out and go on another playoff run. Anything other than a one-and-done in the postseason should be considered a major upset at this point.

This all adds further intrigue to his impending free agency. With Brady reportedly open to all options, including continuing his career with another team, his age should be a major factor for any prospective suitor.

If a team is certain that it can land the 2020-21 version of Brady by getting him into its offense and away from whatever this Bucs unit has become, by all means, take a shot. We've seen it work before. It could absolutely happen again with the right fit. But you're also playing with fire.

Even if you come away from watching this year's tape confident that he hasn't truly started to fall off, it could hit at any time. Remember how sure the Colts were that Matt Ryan was the missing piece?

The 49ers, Giants, Raiders, Jets, and Titans would all theoretically make sense for Brady in the event he puts off retirement and seeks out a new home. But if his market was quieter than expected in 2020, when he left the Patriots to join the Bucs, is putting together this kind of season ahead of another chance at free agency really going to yield any sort of different results?

Jets are so close Joshua Bessex / Getty Images Sport / Getty

The Jets will consider Sunday's loss in Buffalo a major missed opportunity. Any time your defense can hold Josh Allen to 147 passing yards on a measly 5.4 yards per attempt, you've put yourself in a position to win.

It didn't work out this time around, with the Jets unable to conquer the elements when their offense was on the field. Falling to 7-6 is, indeed, a blow to their playoff aspirations. But how can you not still love everything about where this team is headed?

We've spent a lot of time talking about the quarterback issues and the disaster that was the Zach Wilson pick, which will ultimately be the big story of this season for the Jets. That's a real shame, though, because everything else about this team is ready for the biggest stage.

The defense, which is undoubtedly a top-five unit in the game, now has a pair of standout showings against the best team in the division and one of the most unstoppable quarterbacks on the planet. Only one of those performances proved to be enough for a win, but holding Allen to 352 yards and one touchdown as a passer across two games tells you everything you need to know about the Jets' future on that side of the ball.

New York's offense isn't far off, either. The offensive line, when healthy, provides a solid foundation up front. Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore are future stars at receiver, and the running game should be in great shape when Breece Hall returns next season.

As we've seen over the last few weeks, having a quarterback like Mike White simply keeping the offense operating on schedule is enough to make this team competitive. The goal, assuming the organization is brave enough to cut its losses with Wilson now, should be to upgrade the quarterback position this offseason. If the Jets can find a signal-caller with the skill set to elevate the offense even further, that's when we can start talking contender status.

Let's see how bold they get.

Quick slants

Close call for Dallas

Tom Pennington / Getty Images Sport / Getty

The Cowboys narrowly avoided the upset of the year against the Texans, as Dak Prescott followed up a massive goal-line stand with an incredible touchdown drive for the last-second win. That Dallas even needed such an effort late against the worst team in football can be considered a worrying sign, but hey, it happens. The Chiefs lost to the Colts, remember? Rather than looking at this as evidence that the Cowboys aren't quite as good as everyone thinks, consider just how important it is to have elite players who can step up and drag you to wins even when it's not your day.

Giants fall apart

The Giants' ability to find a way to win week after week despite a mediocre roster was a fun story while it lasted. After a 7-2 start in which every victory came by one score, their luck finally appears to have run out. New York has now gone four straight games without a win. A 48-22 loss at home against the Eagles showed just how sizeable the gap is between New York and the true contenders in the NFC. The Giants remain in the final wild-card spot at the conclusion of this week's action, but with a tough schedule ahead and the red-hot Lions on their tail, it may be too early in the rebuild for a postseason run, after all.

Trev does it again

The Jaguars had lost 10 straight games in Tennessee before finally getting the best of their division rivals in the form of a comfortable 36-22 win. The difference: finally having a franchise quarterback. Trevor Lawrence was once again playing at an especially high level at the controls of the Jacksonville offense, completing 30 of 42 passes for a career-high 368 yards, three touchdowns, and, for the fifth straight game, no interceptions. He also put his athleticism to use early in the second half, keeping the ball on a read option, stiff-arming the unblocked defender, and beating the cornerback to the edge for his fourth rushing score of the year. This offense is in great hands with Lawrence under center, and it's only going to get better with his continued growth and Calvin Ridley joining the receiving corps next year. The future is extremely bright in Jacksonville.

Fix the playoff format

On the surface, it makes sense that division champions get a home game in the playoffs - a suitable reward for a major accomplishment in the regular season. The problem is that the logic never accounted for certain divisions lagging so far behind others. The Bucs, assuming they hang on to win the NFC South, are going to be the latest undeserving host of a playoff game. After getting run off the field by the 49ers this week, it's clear that this team is out of its depth against playoff competition. It just doesn't feel right that a real contender, like Dallas, has to travel to Tampa Bay on Wild Card Weekend. The good news for the Cowboys, if they end up making the trip, is that it probably doesn't matter where you play this Bucs team.

Better late than never

Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

As has been the case throughout this season, the Broncos were a mess early against the Chiefs. Russell Wilson had a pass deflected, intercepted, and returned for a touchdown to put them down 27-0 midway through the second quarter. Denver seemed to be heading for its most lopsided loss yet. But then something finally clicked for the offense. Wilson helped Denver get back in the game with 247 passing yards and a season-high three touchdowns, while also using his athleticism for a campaign-best 57 yards on the ground. It was far from perfect - Wilson took six sacks on the day - and the comeback fell short, but progress is progress. The Broncos will take anything they can get looking ahead to next year.

A necessary change

If we're strictly talking about timing, then yes, Jon Robinson's firing as the Titans' general manager can be considered a surprise. When you look at the roster he put together, though, what exactly is there to like? The results have been there over the past few years, so it's certainly an unorthodox move, but this team won in spite of the roster-building, not because of it. Getting lit up by the Jaguars was a great example of the issues the Titans face. If you want to play a physical game against Tennessee, you're probably going to get punched in the mouth all day. Mike Vrabel's teams just won't be beaten that way. But the secondary is so bereft of talent that opponents are perfectly content abandoning the run game and shredding them through the air. And after the bizarre decision to trade A.J. Brown away last offseason, the Titans absolutely don't have the playmakers needed to keep pace in any sort of shootout.

Panthers' defense shining

The Seahawks' offense entered this week ranked eighth in DVOA, fifth in points, and ninth in total yards. All in all, a potent scoring attack. For the Panthers, that just meant this would be another opportunity to prove that their defense is no joke. That unit continued to shine under interim head coach Steve Wilks, helping Carolina make it three wins in the last four games by stunning Seattle on the road. The defense made a pair of massive plays in the first half, twice intercepting Geno Smith en route to an early lead, before forcing three second-half punts to help close out the 30-24 win. The latest impressive result comes after three straight games holding opponents to 15 points or less. Carolina deserves a lot of credit for resisting the idea of a trade-deadline fire sale - there remains a strong group of young talent, particularly on defense, that's worth building around long term.

Stat of the week

The Dolphins had more yards on Tyreek Hill's fumble recovery TD (57) than they did total offensive yards in the 1st half (55).#FinsUp

- NFL Research (@NFLResearch) December 12, 2022

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