NFL Week 16 teasers: On its last legs

Just when teasers got profitable, we're in our last week of digging deep into the "teaser basket." While the NFL extended its season to 18 games, Week 17 still marks the point where late-season results are less reliable.

Games between two teams that are giving a predictable level of effort are fewer and farther between this late in the season. Lines will be inflated toward a team with something to play for, even though the underdog is still playing hard, and other games lined around pick'em might have one team decidedly more interested in the season than the other. Things get weird in Week 17 and Week 18, which isn't ideal for a bet that's based on the point spread ringing true - especially when players willingly lateral the football in the middle of plays when the situation doesn't call for it.

Some games don't have a teaser-worthy point spread. For example, teasing the Chiefs -9.5 at home against the Seahawks would bring the spread down to -3.5, which doesn't capture the key number of -3. While the Chiefs are expected to win comfortably, they often find themselves in games more competitive than expected.

Teasing the Seahawks to +15.5 is somewhat appealing, but the worry looms that the Chiefs could blow out Seattle, which has been struggling lately. Getting +10 through +15.5 over a big sample size isn't worth the price hike over -270.

Elsewhere on Christmas Eve, the Ravens are 7.5-point favorites, moving up from a lookahead of -6.5 and a Sunday re-opening of -7. The market likes the Ravens' chances of winning, and while we might not be looking to lay 7.5 points with their offense - even with Lamar Jackson - we can still take this spread down through both -7 and -3. A closer look, using alternative line prices, shows the value of teasing down.

The pricing significantly jumps between Ravens -3.5 (-210) and Ravens -2.5 (-330), showing the importance of capturing the -3 number in NFL betting. More importantly, the Ravens' alternative spread (-1.5) is priced at -345, which is much higher than getting the team at -1.5 with a teaser leg at around -270.

To get an incredible deal on Ravens -1.5, we must pair them with another bet and win both to cash the ticket. Fortunately, we can choose that other leg from our weekly "teaser basket" using what we know about key numbers.

Let's look at the mathematically optimal plays available for Week 16:

Baltimore is a particularly good teaser leg because Desmond Ridder didn't exactly light it up in his Falcons debut (13/26, 97 yards, 4 sacks) and now faces a better defensive front in a tough environment.

The Panthers got bullied by the Steelers last week, proving they're better left as underdogs even at home to equally mediocre teams. Pittsburgh was the valuable teaser leg last week, getting pushed up to +8.5, but now it's the Panthers getting those points over a touchdown against the Lions.

The Saints still have playoff hopes, but the reason to tease them up to +9 is twofold. First, a nearing historical low game total suggests that every point will be more valuable than usual. Secondly, with comically high winds in the forecast for Cleveland, kicking will be difficult, which can throw a game off of key numbers thanks to missed PATs.

We'll include an 'off-brand' teaser leg, with the Packers at +4.5 teased up to +10.5. We can expect a top-level effort from still-alive Green Bay, and in this case, we can use the market as a hint. This line opened at Packers +6 and has moved Green Bay's way. While there's considerable value lost on the Packers against the spread with that move, a teaser line going from +12 to +10.5 doesn't lose nearly as much win probability.

The Rams and Broncos are a good example of a prime teaser leg, with a game total in the mid-30s. They're also a good example of our point above - we're not sure what to expect from either team when it comes to motivation this late in the season.

Lastly, compare a teaser leg price (-270 to -280) of the 49ers and the Buccaneers to their available moneylines to see if you're making a valuable bet on either of those to win outright.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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