NFL Week 16 player props: Weather impacting markets all over the league

We finished Week 15 with another 5-5 split, right on track with this season's mediocre results. We're one game over .500, which isn't the follow-up we hoped for after last year's 90-63-1 effort through 15 weeks. The final two weeks of the campaign are wildly unpredictable, so this is our last chance to finish with a few extra dollars in our stocking - the most fun Christmas prop of all.

Andy Dalton under 139.5 passing yards

With heavy winds in the forecast, there's a chance Taysom Hill gets more snaps at quarterback than Dalton. In fact, I think it's probable. Even if Dalton gets the lion's share of the work under center, his usual receiving corps - Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry - will be mostly absent due to injury. The conditions will remove the Saints' burgeoning deep threat Rashid Shaheed from the game's equation, so unless one or two short passes go a long way, Dalton will stay under an already low total.

Isiah Pacheco over 67.5 rushing yards

It hasn't taken any special tricks on offense to beat the Seahawks' defense lately. Since taking over the lead ball-carrier role in the Chiefs' offense, Pacheco had less than 67 yards rushing just once in six games, which came when he wasn't able to take advantage of a closer-type role late in a loss at the Bengals and finished with 66. With Kansas City 10-point favorites on Saturday, he should have the opportunity to add to his total.

Cole Kmet under 29.5 receiving yards

Kmet has had between four and seven targets in his last six games and has still gone under this total in two of those matchups. Heavy winds are expected in Chicago, and one of the league's top cover linebackers in the Bills' Matt Milano will be keeping his eye on the underneath passing options, so Kmet might see less usage than usual and have shorter completions when he does connect with Justin Fields.

Daniel Jones over 227.5 passing yards

Only the Lions give up more yards per pass attempt than the Vikings, which is why this total is as high as it is - Jones has put up more than 230 yards just once all season. The Giants will have to keep up with the Vikings' offense, but a rare dome game against a bad defense should set up his most passing volume of the year.

Josh Uche over 0.5 sacks

The Patriots get to the quarterback, owning the third-most sacks in the NFL this season. The Bengals give up sacks, allowing the sixth-most in the league this season. Uche has at least half-a-sack in six straight games, as the second-year linebacker out of Michigan has found a prominent role as a pass-rusher with defenses required to focus on Matthew Judon.

Desmond Ridder under 141.5 passing yards

A combination of the Falcons' willingness to run the football and a neutered Ravens' offense should keep Atlanta within arms' length of Baltimore. There shouldn't be much reason to have Ridder throw the ball much. Even when he did in his debut last week, the rookie quarterback only completed half his attempts and didn't crack 100 passing yards. This is an even tougher matchup.

Christian McCaffrey under 80.5 rushing yards

The 49ers relied on McCaffrey to carry them to victory over Seattle last week, but that strategy might run him right into the wall that is the Commanders' defensive line. He may be a better option in the passing game, but clearing 80 yards on the ground is asking a lot in what should be a competitive contest.

Dallas Goedert over 40.5 receiving yards

In his final season in Jacksonville, Gardner Minshew leaned heavily on intermediate targets like tight end Tyler Eifert and hybrid receiver Laviska Shenault. In Minshew's only game with Eagles' starters last year, he found Goedert six times for 105 yards and two touchdowns. Goedert is returning from injury, so his yardage total is lined lower than if he was in midseason form, but he's still Philly's third-leading pass-catcher.

Josh Jacobs under 84.5 rushing yards

Jacobs is still getting the heavy workload for the Raiders, but no one wants to run the ball more than the Panthers, and all their running backs could muster last week against the Steelers was 19 yards on 14 carries. Pittsburgh has allowed just 3.6 yards per carry in home games, and the team should have one of the rare hyped holiday crowds on Christmas Eve. The Raiders may have to lean on Derek Carr if the Steelers jump out to a lead.

Trace McSorley under 190.5 passing yards

A sub-200 yardage total is not a great sign if you're playing in perfect conditions, which is all you need to know about this matchup between McSorley and a hungry Bucs' defense that was forced into defending short fields last week. McSorley did enter the Cardinals' last game but had a poor showing, completing 7 of 15 passes for 95 yards and two interceptions.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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