Key takeaways and analysis from Week 16 in the NFL

Sunday Rundown recaps the most important developments from the day's action and examines their significance moving forward.

Cowboys get a big one Sam Hodde / Getty Images Sport / Getty

The Eagles and Cowboys are essentially locked into their spots in the NFC: Philly is all but assured the No. 1 seed, while Dallas is on track for the top wild-card position. But there was still something to play for in the latest meeting of two bitter rivals.

The Cowboys, most notably, were out to prove they belong in the conversation with the soaring Eagles among the NFL's elite. While the absence of Jalen Hurts puts an asterisk on the result for some, it's tough to come away thinking those efforts were anything but a resounding success. If hanging 40 points on the NFL's No. 2-ranked defense isn't a statement for Dallas, what is?

Dak Prescott rose to the occasion with his best performance of the season, completing 27-of-35 passes for 347 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception while adding another 41 yards on the ground. The Eagles were especially helpless trying to slow him down with zone coverage.

Dak Prescott earned a season-high 91 NGS passing score in Week 16.

Prescott completed all 24 of his passes against zone coverage for 300 yards & 3 TD, becoming the only player to earn a perfect 99 NGS passing score vs zone in a game since 2018.#PHIvsDAL | #DallasCowboys pic.twitter.com/zdNto4GSXU

- Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) December 25, 2022

CeeDee Lamb continues to produce at an elite level as Prescott's No. 1 target, this time getting the Eagles for 10 catches, 120 yards, and two touchdowns. Don't overlook the big play from a certain veteran target making his Cowboys debut, though. T.Y. Hilton came up with the play of the game for Dallas, getting behind the Eagles' defense on third-and-30 for a crucial 51-yard catch that helped set up the game-tying touchdown early in the fourth quarter.

The Hilton addition may have disappointed Cowboys fans, as it seemed like an alternative to Odell Beckham Jr. But if the Colts legend can add a vertical element to this offense, even on a situational basis, an already potent passing attack becomes even more difficult to defend.

We've been saying since Dak's healthy return that nobody wants to see this team in the playoffs. And that remains true for perhaps everyone but the Eagles. After nearly completing the season sweep with their backup quarterback under center, Philly will be eager for another shot at Dallas with Hurts back on the field in January.

Whether in the divisional round or perhaps for the NFC title, this is a postseason rematch the football world deserves. Each side has a win with the opponent's starting quarterback on the sidelines. Let's see how it plays out with everything on the line and both teams at full strength.

Jefferson unstoppable David Berding / Getty Images Sport / Getty

The best wideout in football continues to amaze.

Justin Jefferson had another dominant performance in Saturday's last-minute win over the Giants, hauling in 12 catches for 133 yards and a touchdown and breaking Randy Moss's franchise record for receiving yards in a season. It's an incredible achievement for the Vikings superstar in only his third year at the pro level, and he may only be getting started on the record books.

Jefferson enters the final two games of the season sitting at 1,756 yards, 208 shy of Calvin Johnson's all-time single-season NFL record. Topping that mark is no guarantee, but even keeping pace with his league-best average of 117 yards per game would get it done with ease. And his final two opponents, a pair of NFC North rivals, are well aware of how impossible it can be to stop him.

The Packers had a front-row seat as Jefferson went off for 184 yards and two touchdowns on nine catches in the season opener, while the Bears allowed him to haul in 12 receptions for 154 yards a month later. Somehow, those stellar efforts don't even crack his top two performances on the year.

While it remains difficult to believe in the Vikings heading into the playoffs - needing weekly late-game heroics to beat inferior opponents doesn't inspire much confidence - the outcomes of tight contests aren't so much a matter of good or bad luck when you have difference-makers like Jefferson on your side.

Opponents have tried it all, and little is working. Like he did with one play after another to help Minnesota secure win No. 12, Jefferson has a penchant for taking over when the game is on the line, and how far he can take this team in January will be a major postseason storyline. Opposing teams may want the Vikings in the first round, but their defensive backs surely don't.

Wilks earning the job Grant Halverson / Getty Images Sport / Getty

The Lions getting blown out by the Panthers will be widely seen as a case of an up-and-coming team proving it isn't quite ready to compete. In some ways, that's probably fair - Detroit had to win if it was going to complete its late-season run. But give Carolina some credit here, too.

While the Lions and Jaguars garnered some deserved national attention for getting hot at the right time and giving themselves unlikely shots at the playoffs, the Panthers have quietly been on a similar path. It hasn't been as sexy, in part because this was a perceived trade-deadline seller now on its third quarterback and second head coach, but the results don't lie.

These Lions were no fraud. The offense has been scheming as well as any in the league, perfectly marrying the run and pass games to make the most of an explosive group of playmakers. And the defense had been coming along, too. The Lions may well have been the hottest team in football over the last eight games. Yet the Panthers were better in every phase Saturday.

Detroit was gashed by a sneaky-strong Carolina run game, with D'Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard combining for 290 of the team's 320 rushing yards. Sam Darnold also enjoyed his best game of the year since taking over as the starter, throwing for 250 yards on 15-of-22 passing with one touchdown.

Carolina won the battle in the defensive trenches too, completely bottling up Jamaal Williams and D'Andre Swift in the ground game. Jared Goff had another big day statistically but much of his raw production came with Detroit furiously trying to mount a late comeback. In the end, a second-quarter turnover deep in Carolina territory followed by four consecutive three-and-outs was too much to overcome.

At 6-9, the Panthers now control their own destiny in the NFC South. If they win their final two games against the Bucs and Saints, they'll be division champs for the first time since 2015.

Whether they get it done or not, being in this position with two weeks to play is a testament to Steve Wilks' success at maximizing the young talent on this roster. Matt Rhule's firing in Week 6 created an illusion that this team was much further away than it actually is. Why not keep a good thing going with the coach who helped right the ship?

Bill's still got it Winslow Townson / Getty Images Sport / Getty

The Bengals have been one of the best teams in football for the last two months. With Joe Burrow playing at an MVP-caliber level, the offense has an answer for just about everything you can throw at it. Early on Saturday in New England, it was business as usual.

The Patriots' defense, which entered the week ranked second only to the 49ers in defensive DVOA, looked outmatched for most of the first half. Burrow was locked in from the opening snap, completing 28-of-36 passes for 284 yards and three touchdowns through two quarters. That impressive output sent Cincinnati to halftime with a 22-0 lead and in position to cruise to another big win.

But Bill Belichick had other plans. With his back against the wall, he served up another reminder that he's the best coach we've ever seen.

New England found a way to make life much more difficult for Burrow and Co. after the break, forcing two turnovers - one of which went back for a touchdown - while allowing only one third-down conversion on seven opportunities. The Bengals were held without a point the rest of the day, giving the Patriots an opportunity to storm back and make it a game.

A red-zone fumble from Rhamondre Stevenson on what could have been a late go-ahead touchdown drive ultimately halted the comeback attempt, effectively ending the Patriots' playoff hopes in the process. It was more evidence that New England's nightmare offensive season wasted yet another phenomenal Belichick defense.

The complicated part, at least in terms of Belichick's responsibility, is that he was the one who entrusted Matt Patricia and Joe Judge to run an offense for the first time in their careers. It was a bizarre decision, to be sure, and the Patriots have paid the price all year long.

In that sense, Belichick deserves all the criticism you want to send his way. But he can still coach a defense unlike anyone else. The question now is whether he admits his mistake and makes the necessary offseason changes.

Quick slants

Titans are done

Wesley Hitt / Getty Images Sport / Getty

The Titans already had a lot working against them. The roster wasn't very good to begin with - that's why the move to part ways with general manager Jon Robinson wasn't too surprising. And when injuries started to hit, things got even more difficult. But losing Ryan Tannehill for the next few weeks, and perhaps the rest of the season, is too much for this team to withstand. Malik Willis' performance in Saturday's disaster loss to the Texans, managing only 99 passing yards while throwing two interceptions and taking four sacks, is another sign that he simply isn't ready to play - at least not at the level the Titans need to be competitive. Tennessee's now relinquished the AFC South lead, and it feels like a red-hot Jacksonville team won't be inclined to give it back.

Week 17 rest game?

The Titans' loss creates a fascinating situation for both them and the first-place Jaguars, who meet each other in the regular-season finale. With both teams 7-8, next week's results won't have any impact on the AFC South race. At most, one team will take a one-game lead over the other. But whichever team falls back could again pull even, and also secure the tiebreaker, with a win in their Week 18 matchup. So, if there's truly nothing to gain in next week's games, should the Jaguars and Titans consider using it as an extra bye and rest their starters? It might be a smart decision for both.

Good day for Green Bay

The Packers are having quite the weekend before even getting the chance to play. Making a late run and sneaking into the playoffs was going to take two things: running the table and getting some help. Losses by the Commanders, Seahawks, and Lions on Saturday certainly count as the latter. Taking care of business Sunday against the Dolphins to make it three straight wins would pull the Packers even with the Seahawks and Lions at 7-8, a half-game back of the 7-7-1 Commanders. A win over Miami is no sure thing, and the same can be said for matchups with Minnesota and Detroit that follow. But the playoffs are suddenly a real possibility for the Packers, and they're finally playing at level that gives them a chance to capitalize.

49ers' offense rolling

Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images Sport / Getty

A third-ranked Washington defense figured to be the most important test yet for a 49ers team adjusting to life with Brock Purdy under center. The offense didn't get off to the best start, managing seven points in the first half, but it was a different story from there. San Francisco exploded for 30 points in the final two quarters, with Purdy hitting George Kittle for a pair of touchdowns and Christian McCaffrey finding the end zone late to seal win No. 11 of the season. This offense is ready for the playoffs, and it's only going to get better when Deebo Samuel returns in the coming weeks. Even if Jimmy Garoppolo is cleared to play at some point in the postseason, the 49ers may be wise to stick with Purdy. He's proven more than ready for the big moment.

Bosa locks up DPOY

Speaking of the 49ers, let's go ahead and end the debate for one of the NFL's most prestigious awards: Nick Bosa is your Defensive Player of the Year. The star edge rusher had another standout game in the win over the Commanders, racking up two sacks to give him 17.5 for the season. That's two clear of Matthew Judon for the league lead and 4.5 more than top DPOY challenger Micah Parsons at 13. Numerous defensive players are having award-worthy seasons, but nobody has consistently terrorized opposing offenses like Bosa. And it couldn't have come at a better time for the former No. 2 overall pick - he's due for a new contract this offseason.

Carr done in Vegas?

The Raiders' wildly disappointing year has led to reports that the team could opt to move on from Derek Carr in the offseason. There should be no lingering doubt about that possibility after Saturday night's loss to the Steelers. Carr was wildly off target on numerous throws in the elements in Pittsburgh - including one particularly mind-boggling interception, his third of the game, over the head and behind a wide-open Hunter Renfrow to end it. Carr's offseason extension was clearly structured to give the team an out at the end of this year. It'll be an upset if the Raiders don't take that opportunity and look to free agency for his replacement, with Tom Brady and Jimmy Garoppolo, a pair of Josh McDaniels' old friends, set to be available.

Stat of the week

NFL, 1920 to 2016: 16 field goals made of 60+ yards
NFL, 2017 to 2022: 16 field goals made of 60+ yards

- Football Perspective (@fbgchase) December 24, 2022

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