MNF best bets: L.A. puts together a charge to the playoffs in Indianapolis

Each Monday, we'll finish off the week that was in the NFL with a look at value spots in the remaining game under one condition: You promise not to chase. Whether Sunday provided a boost to the accounts or left a little to be desired, Monday Night Football offers an opportunity to show responsibility in your betting. There will always be another wild Sunday to get lost in.

The Colts are back in the spotlight - the last place they want to be after allowing the biggest comeback in NFL history a week ago Saturday. In what can only be described as an attempt to change their narrative, the Colts have again ousted Matt Ryan from the starting quarterback role.

Meanwhile, the Chargers have a chance to shift their own narrative: the one that says when push comes to shove, they fall short. A win on the road in Indianapolis would clinch a playoff berth after the teams around them in the standings all lost this week. Punching that ticket would ease the pain of last season's Week 18 prime-time season finale where the Chargers lost in overtime in Las Vegas, missing the postseason by a half-game.

When a football team makes a change at quarterback, there's an added variable - a "maybe" - attached to their immediate potential. Maybe Super Bowl winner Nick Foles resurrects his career with a big game.

Is this a reward for being a good soldier deep down the depth chart this season after watching Sam Ehlinger flop and Ryan crash and burn? Or is Foles simply the last man standing in the quarterback room as the Colts return home after last week's catastrophe? Either way, it's not a ringing endorsement of Foles' ability to change Indianapolis' fortunes.

Last week's loss, along with the other eight Colts defeats this season, wasn't solely caused by quarterback play. Jonathan Taylor's injury-plagued season has come to an early end, leaving Deon Jackson and Zack Moss responsible for taking advantage of the Chargers' run defense. But while Los Angeles is prone to allowing explosive run plays, Jackson's longest run this season is 17 yards and Moss' is 11 as a Colt.

While Joey Bosa's return may wait another week, the Chargers still look to be getting a pair of key defenders back in Derwin James and Bryce Callahan. That should make life more difficult for Foles; unlike some younger, more agile backup quarterbacks, he doesn't provide a threat with his legs.

There's not as much uncertainty when it comes to the Chargers' offense. Justin Herbert's stats are underwhelming in comparison to the eye test, but he's finally got a healthy stable of skill-position players, and outside of Rashawn Slater, the offensive line should be near full strength.

With numerous good options near the goal line, the Chargers should find success in the red zone against the league's second-worst defense at preventing touchdowns. The Colts allow TDs on 67.5% of opponents' trips.

Coming away with seven points instead of three on their deep drives will allow L.A. to extend a lead, which should put the immobile Foles in a vulnerable, pass-heavy position. Having escaped a letdown against the Titans last week, the focused Chargers take care of business to get back in the playoffs.

Pick: Chargers -4

Zach Moss under 55.5 rushing yards

Moss churned out 81 yards on 24 carries in a positive game state last week against the Vikings, and 3.4 yards per carry is a full yard below what Minnesota's defense allows. He doesn't possess the explosiveness that would normally suggest playing a tailback's over against the Chargers. More importantly, Moss probably won't see the same volume, since we shouldn't expect the Colts to take a big lead off of a blocked punt and numerous turnovers the way they did last week.

Jelani Woods over 20.5 receiving yards

With the Colts potentially trailing and forced into a pass-heavy game script, Foles should be turning to his tight ends. Kylen Granson's injury means there's one fewer option to pick from. In three games since Jelani Woods returned from injury, he has 98, 28, and 36 yards. In each game, he had a long reception of over 20 yards, so he might clear his total on a single catch Monday night.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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