NHL weekly betting guide: True moneylines for every game

Matt Russell

from on 2022-12-27 14:05 (#677XP)

The NHL had its Christmas break, but with the season poised to resume, I've got a gift for you: a chance to complain.

The whole "peace on earth, goodwill toward men" thing is over for another year, so without further adieu, here's my rating for each team from now through the rest of the year. Perfect for something to grumble about.

How to read the ratings:

As usual, current standings are meaningless. That shootout win your favorite team earned in October doesn't help win games in February. This is not about ranking teams to this point; it's about who will be profitable from Dec. 27 to April 14.

A rating of 1.00 represents a league-average team. If your favorite team gets a higher rating - a 1.05, for example - that club can be expected to be 5% better than a league-average team from here on out. In turn, squads rated at 0.95 are expected to be 5% worse than the average team. In betting terms, a team that's 5% better than its opponent would be -111 on the moneyline before a sportsbook applies the vigorish.

TEAM	PRESEASON RATING	RATING NOW
Toronto Maple Leafs	1.17	1.21
Carolina Hurricanes	1.12	1.19
Florida Panthers	1.15	1.19
Tampa Bay Lightning	1.13	1.15
Boston Bruins	1.05	1.15
New Jersey Devils	1.00	1.15
Colorado Avalanche	1.22	1.13
Calgary Flames	1.12	1.11
Minnesota Wild	1.09	1.10
Vegas Golden Knights	1.06	1.09
New York Rangers	1.09	1.09
Pittsburgh Penguins	1.11	1.08
Edmonton Oilers	1.12	1.07
Los Angeles Kings	1.06	1.06
Dallas Stars	1.03	1.04
Washington Capitals	1.03	1.03
Nashville Predators	1.06	1.03
Winnipeg Jets	0.97	0.99
New York Islanders	1.02	0.98
Seattle Kraken	0.89	0.98
St. Louis Blues	1.07	0.98
Vancouver Canucks	1.01	0.95
Ottawa Senators	0.95	0.95
Detroit Red Wings	0.93	0.92
Buffalo Sabres	0.86	0.92
San Jose Sharks	0.82	0.92
Columbus Blue Jackets	0.87	0.82
Philadelphia Flyers	0.80	0.81
Montreal Canadiens	0.79	0.81
Anaheim Ducks	0.87	0.79
Chicago Blackhawks	0.73	0.74
Arizona Coyotes	0.72	0.73

The left column shows where teams stood before the season. The column on the right illustrates how perceptions have changed and expectations going forward.

The recipe

We started the campaign using regular-season point totals as a baseline for rating teams since it's still our best measurement. Throughout the campaign, we'll adjust club ratings using on-ice metrics to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-teams results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

The cheat sheet

There are no bad bets at the right price, but how do we know what a good price is?

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for a team on the second leg of a back-to-back without travel. When it comes to injured players, I do my best to estimate the impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's also a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between market open and puck drop.

DATE	GAME	TRUE ML	PRICE TO BET
Dec. 27	CHI@CAR	+319/-319	CHI +404/CAR -302
	WSH@NYR	+147/-147	WSH +175/NYR -141
	BOS@OTT	-128/+128	BOS -123/OTT +151
	PIT@NYI	-104/+104	PIT +106/NYI +115
	TOR@STL	-120/+120	TOR -115/STL +141
	DAL@NSH	+116/-116	DAL +136/NSH -111
	MIN@WPG	-129/+129	MIN -124/WPG +152
	COL@ARI	-123/+123	COL -118/ARI +145
	EDM@CGY	+125/-125	EDM +148/CGY -120
	SJS@VAN	+104/-104	SJS +115/VAN +107
	VGK@LAK	+126/-126	VGK +148/LAK -121
Dec. 28	MTL@TBL	+248/-248	MTL +305/TBL -237
	BOS@NJD	+143/-143	BOS +169/NJD -137
	DET@PIT	+134/-134	DET +158/PIT -128
	CGY@SEA	+112/-112	CGY +131/SEA -107
	VGK@ANA	-122/+122	VGK -117/ANA +143
Dec. 29	OTT@WSH	+124/-124	OTT +146/WSH -119
	MTL@FLA	+113/-113	MTL +132/FLA -108
	DET@BUF	+143/-143	DET +169/BUF -137
	NYR@TBL	+119/-119	NYR +140/TBL -114
	CBJ@NYI	+195/-195	CBJ +235/NYI -187
	CHI@STL	+192/-192	CHI +231/-184
	DAL@MIN	+132/-132	DAL +156/MIN -127
	VAN@WPG	+127/-127	VAN +150/WPG -122
	LAK@COL	-111/+111	LAK +100/COL +122
	TOR@ARI	-204/+204	TOR -195/ARI +247
	PHI@SJS	+164/-164	PHI +196/SJS -158
Dec. 30	NSH@ANA	-139/+139	NSH -134/ANA +165
	NJD@PIT	+104/-104	NJD +115/PIT +107
	FLA@CAR	+195/-195	FLA +234/CAR -186
	EDM@SEA	-103/+103	EDM +108/SEA +114
Dec. 31	BUF@BOS	+191/-191	BUF +229/BOS -183
	CHI@CBJ	+117/-117	CHI +137/CBJ -112
	NSH@VGK	+161/-161	NSH +191/VGK -154
	PHI@LAK	+227/-227	PHI +277/LAK -217
	MTL@WSH	+166/-166	MTL +197/WSH -159
	ARI@TBL	+304/-304	ARI +382/TBL -288
	MIN@STL	-108/+108	MIN +102/STL +119
	TOR@COL	-133/+133	TOR -128/COL +157
	OTT@DET	+111/-111	OTT +123/DET +100
	SJS@DAL	+152/-152	SJS +180/DAL -146
	VAN@CGY	+200/-200	VAN +241/CGY -192
	WPG@EDM	+139/-139	WPG +164/EDM -133
Jan. 1	CAR@NJD	+108/-108	CAR +119/NJD +103
	NYR@FLA	+108/-108	NYR +120/FLA +102
	BUF@OTT	+125/-125	BUF +147/OTT -120
	SJS@CHI	-120/+120	SJS -115/CHI +141
	NYI@SEA	+117/-117	NYI +137/SEA -112

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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